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The timely restoration of electricity services following extreme weather events is crucial to meet customer energy resilience as well as for the economic and national security of the United States. Electricity restoration plans are needed to monitor multi-state power restoration operations, undertake resource planning, and analyze system vulnerabilities. However, these plans are proprietary to utility companies and not readily available to first responders and decision-makers. The purpose of the Restoration of Power Outage from Wide-area Severe Weather Disruptions (RePOWERD) project was to (i) determine which type of model – empirical, statistical, or probabilistic-most accurately predicts restoration times for distribution-level power outages caused by Category 2 or higher hurricanes, and (ii) identify the impact on restoration times of various predictor variables, such as power outage impact (i.e., customers impacted), storm characteristics, land-use patterns, and baseline customer density at county-service-area resolution. Seven models were developed for hurricanes that made landfalls from 2017 - 2022 along the Southeast region of the United States (Irma, Michael, Harvey, Laura, and Zeta). Comparing methods for predicting the time to restore power to 95 % of impacted customers for these hurricanes revealed that: 1) outage magnitude (i.e., initial number of customers experiencing outages and their spatial distributions) is the strongest predictor of recovery time; 2) the performance of the log-linear regression model was similar to more complex, less interpretable models (e.g., accelerated failure time); and 3) the final log-linear regression model achieved strong overall performance, but it struggled with certain hurricanes (overall adjusted R² of 0.6730, with a minimum of 0.4006 for Harvey and maximum of 0.8636 for Zeta). Using the log-linear regression model to forecast restoration time is viable, as all input data are publicly available prior to or at storm onset; however, the model reliability would benefit from expanding the scope of predictors and training data.

The increasing occurrence of extreme weather events is challenging power grid operation. For extreme weather events, the system operator is responsible for estimating the power outages and scheduling the restoration resources. This paper proposes an outage evaluation framework to identify the possible unserved load profiles, vulnerable areas, and mobile energy adequacy. The outputs of an outage prediction model tool are used to generate numerous faulted line scenarios. Next, each scenario's nodal unserved load profile is obtained by solving a three-phase restoration model that considers repair crews and mobile energy resources (MERs). Then, a novel scenario clustering strategy is developed to cluster the unserved load profiles into multiple representative profiles which the system operator can focus on. Finally, case studies on a distribution system evaluate the damage caused by an extreme weather event and verify the effectiveness of the proposed scenario clustering strategy.

This paper introduces pyRoCS, an open source Python-based software that enables users to quantify resilience of complex systems. The metrics used to quantify resilience are sourced from peer-reviewed publications across multiple domains, including information theory, biosciences, and complex systems. Functions within associated domain modules can be combined based on user needs to support the characterization of resilience. Data structures from various domains (e.g., media coverage, organizational structures, and hazard analyses in critical infrastructures) could be analyzed using metrics within pyRoCS, including those collected in the field or derived from modeling and simulations. The conversion of these existing metrics into a formal software package increases the robustness and transparency of current implementations. Furthermore, the inclusion of multiple disciplinary metrics enables exploration of how resilience concepts are translated into practice, an area of interest in multiple domains.

Report analyzes plans developed by water and electric utilities to address the impacts of changes in the climate within their service territories. The analysis identifies the main types of changes that utilities address, such as sea level rise, extreme heat, and compound events such as freezing rain/show and extreme wind events. It then identifies adaptation approaches utilities have proposed or adopted to address the changes that are anticipated in their service territories. The report also identifies the mechanisms utilities (and in some cases the governments which the utilities are part of) use to ensure that energy or environmental equity is increased as a result of the resilience program. In summary, the report provides a compendium of adaptation strategies that can be used by others as they review their own need to increase climate resilience.

Abstract: Flash droughts are characterized by a rapid onset of drought conditions, a common feature among various indicators of these events. The lack of a standardized definition and indicator makes flash droughts particularly challenging to predict and manage. We test six state-of-the-art flash drought indicators using 41 years of daily data across all Hydrological Unit Code 4 (HUC4) regions in the contiguous United States. Our results show substantial disagreements among indicators, suggesting that the detection of a flash drought event strongly depends on the choice of indicator. From the perspective of informing management and operations, an open challenge remains: which flash drought indicator should be used to trigger operational adaptations? To this end, we propose a methodological framework that informs adaptive actions by regionally assessing the level of agreement between different indicators. The regional differences in hydroclimatic conditions are expected to be reflected in the level of agreement between indicators. To better inform adaptive actions, the framework will also consider the impacted sectoral water uses and their varying response times. The insights gained from this study improve the understanding of how these different flash drought indicators capture the different aspects of regional differences and impacted sectors. Furthermore, this information can support more targeted adaptive actions to mitigate adverse impacts through improved preparedness and response strategies.

Abstract: Flash droughts, characterized by their rapid onset, sharply contrast with the typically gradual development of traditional droughts. These events are triggered by a combination of low rainfall and high evaporation rates, driven by elevated temperatures, making them particularly challenging to predict and prepare for. As a relatively new concept, flash drought is not well understood, which introduces significant epistemic uncertainties regarding their nature and detection methods. This under-detection hinders planners' ability to effectively manage these events. Despite these uncertainties, flash droughts can have significant impacts, raising the question: how can decision-makers prepare for such events given the current knowledge gaps? To address this, we propose a methodological framework aimed at enhancing flash drought preparedness by guiding the selection of appropriate indicators based on their detection capabilities and the decision-makers' level of risk aversion. Our approach involves evaluating six different flash drought indicators and analyzing the level of agreement among them. Additionally, we consider the decision-makers' risk aversion, distinguishing between those who require consensus across all methods (risk-takers) and those who act based on a single method's indication (risk-averse). The insights gained from this study offer a pathway towards more informed decision-making processes regarding flash droughts, potentially mitigating their adverse effects through better preparedness and response strategies.

The Grid Resilience to Extreme Events (ResiliEX) 2.0 workshop, co-hosted by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and Seattle City Light, was held at the Seattle City Hall April 23–25, 2024. This is the second workshop of its kind, with the first one having occurred in Seattle in November 2022. Participants from the second workshop hailed from research organizations, utilities, professional associations, consultants, government organizations, and communities. The purpose of the workshop was to Connect scientists, energy professionals, and policy experts to build knowledge and partnerships Advance the understanding of the science of extreme events and application to the energy system Promote grid planning and engineering that addresses the increasingly complex interdependencies as society combats the climate crisis Understand the role of different decision-makers and policymakers in increasing and accelerating grid resilience Identify new approaches, processes, and structures that should be pursued to increase grid resilience to extreme events.

Large-scale power outages, such as those caused by extreme weather events, have a big impact on human behavior. A short power outage is merely a nuisance for most, and may not change people's locations. An outage that lasts for a few hours can result in spoiled food and medical supplies, and people will have to restock spoiled items. Long outages result in temperatures outside tolerable levels in homes, and may prompt people to acquire supplies, such as generators and gas, or change location. The long outages during Winter Storm Uri in Texas resulted in millions of dollars in property damage due to freezing pipes. This level of damage is expected to result in a sharp increase in supply runs and contractor activity. In this paper, we present a tool to explore differences in visiting patterns before, during, and after power outages. It allows to compare different points of interest like medical facilities, grocery stores, hardware stores, and other types of businesses.

This Resilience Project Implementation Process Memo was developed with and for the Town of Stowe Electric Department (SED) under the DOE C2C Expert Match Program. It is intended to outline the steps of a process, albeit nonlinear and iterative, to plan, design, and implement community resilience hubs.

This study proposes a framework for evaluating cloud computing deployment in the electric sector, focusing on the digital transition of energy systems. It assesses the implications of cloud technology adoption, particularly in terms of security, operational resilience, and efficiency. The paper introduces a framework for consequence-driven applied risk analysis, enabling utilities to prioritize and mitigate potential threats effectively, and responsibly deploy cloud applications. It also discusses the shared responsibility model in cloud computing, highlighting the need for collaborative security efforts. The research aims to provide utilities with a strategic assessment tool for cloud adoption, emphasizing the importance of security culture in enhancing cloud computing's role in critical infrastructure.