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Final Technical Report for immediate public release of CalWave's xWave Design for PacWave for microgrids and remote communities.

Coastal or isolated microgrids depend on diesel generators and could benefit from renewable energy resources, especially offshore wind and wave energy. Integrating these resources into microgrids is complicated by their high intermittency, which requires optimal economic dispatch to effectively evaluate. This study considers three coastal or islanded sites, and uses mid-fidelity models of wind and wave energy technologies, and local demand data to solve the optimal economic dispatch problem. An optimal storage sizing method is developed that finds the smallest capacity of energy storage required to meet the microgrid load during each season. The storage capacity decreases by a factor of two at most when adding wave energy converters to a system. Adding wave energy converters to a farm decreases cost by about 30%. Furthermore, the required storage size varies by two to three times from summer to winter. Compared with the state-of-the-art approaches that often overlook realistic offshore renewable energy technology in microgrid economic dispatch and optimal storage sizing, the proposed solution introduced in this study allows for better site selection, microgrid design, converter selection, and storage sizing considerations for isolated microgrids.

The Rayleigh–Taylor instability (RTI) is an ubiquitous phenomenon that occurs in inertial-confinement-fusion (ICF) implosions and is recognized as an important limiting factor of ICF performance. To analytically understand the RTI dynamics and its impact on ICF capsule implosions, we develop a first-principle variational theory that describes an imploding spherical shell undergoing RTI. The model is based on a thin-shell approximation and includes the dynamical coupling between the imploding spherical shell and an adiabatically compressed fluid within its interior. Using a quasilinear analysis, we study the degradation trends of key ICF performance metrics (e.g., stagnation pressure, residual kinetic energy, and areal density) as functions of initial RTI parameters (e.g., the initial amplitude and Legendre mode), as well as the 1D implosion characteristics (e.g., the convergence ratio). We compare analytical results from the theory against nonlinear results obtained by numerically integrating the governing equations of this reduced model. Our findings emphasize the need to incorporate polar flows in the calculation of residual kinetic energy and demonstrate that higher convergence ratios in ICF implosions lead to significantly greater degradation of key performance metrics.

Floating photovoltaic systems are a rapidly expanding sector of the solar energy industry, and understanding their role in future energy systems requires knowing their feasible potential. This paper presents a novel spatially explicit methodology estimating floating photovoltaic potential for federally controlled reservoirs in the United States and uses site-specific attributes of reservoirs to estimate potential generation capacity. The analysis finds the average percent area that is found to be available for floating photovoltaic development is similar to assumed values used in previous research; however, there is wide variability in this proportion on a site-by-site basis. Potential floating photovoltaic generation capacity on these reservoirs is estimated to be in the range of 861 to 1,042 GW direct current (GWdc) depending on input assumptions, potentially representing approximately half of future U.S. solar generation needs for a decarbonized grid. This work represents an advancement in methods used to estimate floating photovoltaic potential that presents many natural extensions for further research.

A Bayesian framework is investigated for event-specific localization of infrasonic sources using back projection ray tracing. Direction-of-arrival information from array-based detection analysis is used to initialize a back projection ray path originating from the detecting array location and quantifying propagation characteristics from hypothetical source locations. The Fisher statistic, computed from the array’s beam coherence, is mapped into uncertainty in the launch angles of the ray path. Auxiliary parameters previously introduced for solving the Transport equation to compute geometric spreading along ray paths are used to map uncertainty in the ray launch angles into spatial and temporal uncertainties in the ray path. An atmospheric ensemble approach is applied to account for atmospheric uncertainty, and the relation between uncertainties in the atmospheric state and confidence in estimated localization are evaluated using several ensembles with specified variances. The method is evaluated using a synthetic event in the western United States constructed via forward propagation simulations as well as a single-station, multi-arrival detection from a surface explosion in the western United States. Localization results using this event-specific approach are more accurate and exhibit improved precision than existing Bayesian localization methods that leverage generalized, pre-computed propagation statistics.

Here, our research focuses on designing metallic coatings to create broadband all-reflective phase retarders that generate circularly polarized (CP) light for the MTW-OPAL Laser System while ensuring the desired polarization state on the target. This all-reflective phase retarder can function as a phase retarder when used in an out-of-plane configuration, whereas it acts as a normal mirror set in an in-plane configuration. If the polarization of the beam is not purely s- or p-polarized, however, mirrors will in general introduce retardance, and therefore compensators or polarization-independent mirror pairs are needed to ensure the desired polarization at the target plane.

In the last decade, uncertainty quantification (UQ) for optical model potentials (OMPs) has become a focal point for nuclear reaction theory, and several competing approaches for OMP UQ have recently been developed. Here, we clarify recent efforts to compare frequentist and Bayesian approaches in the context of OMP UQ [G. B. King et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 122, 232502 (2019)]. We replicate a portion of that OMP UQ study but use independent statistical tools. Specifically, we compare two methods for OMP parameter inference from elastic scattering data: the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm for χ² minimization on one hand and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling on the other. Separately, we assess the common practice of using a renormalized likelihood (χ²/N), N being the number of data points, instead of the canonical weighted-least-squares likelihood (χ²), as a way of accounting for unknown data correlations. Here, we show that for a generic linear model and for a five-parameter OMP analysis, frequentist and uniform-prior Bayesian approaches recover the same optimum and uncertainty estimates—not systematically larger uncertainties for the Bayesian approach, as was concluded in G. B. King et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 122, 232502 (2019). Further, we show that if an additional, near-degenerate parameter is introduced into the same OMP analysis such that the parameter posterior becomes non-Gaussian, then covariance-based estimates of uncertainty become unreliable. Finally, we show that regardless of optimization approach, if χ²/N is used for the likelihood, the resulting parametric uncertainties increase by $$\sqrt{N}$$, and that this is responsible for the conclusions drawn in the revisited study. Based on our replication results, we find that a fortuitous cancellation of unreported errors and the renormalization factor can lead to improvement in empirical coverages, as was the case in the original comparative study. We emphasize that developing and applying a realistic likelihood function is an essential task in a UQ analysis, and that several recent UQ studies that employed a renormalized likelihood (i.e., including a 1/N factor) may have yielded unrealistically large uncertainties for elastic-scattering observables. If the parameter posterior deviates from multivariate-normal, a sampling-based approach like MCMC has a clear advantage over methods that assume the Laplace approximation holds. We note that empirical coverage can serve as an important internal check for the analyst whose model or data may have additional, unaccounted-for uncertainties.

This study identifies hydraulically amplified self-healing electrostatic (HASEL) transducers as electricity generators, contrary to their conventional role as actuators. HASELs are soft, variable-capacitance transducers inspired by biological muscles which were developed to mimic the flexibility and functionality of natural muscle tissues. This research characterizes HASELs as generators by reversing their energy conversion mechanism—generating electricity through mechanical deformation. The study assesses the practical laboratory performance of HASELs by analytic modeling and experimental evaluation. Outcomes of the study include the following: (i) up to 2.5 mJ per cycle per 50 mm wide HASEL pouch of positive net energy generation in experimental testing—corresponding to an energy density of 2.0 mJ cm^-3; (ii) a maximum theoretical energy density of 4.2 mJ cm^-3; (iii) the electromechanical characteristics governing efficient conversion; and (iv) design considerations to enhance HASEL generator performance in future applications. This study broadens HASEL’s applicability and utility as a multi-functional transducer for renewable energy and general adaptive electricity generation.

Interacting torsions are examined within a two-dimensional monolayer crystal suspended in an argon complex plasma for 1–10 W discharge powers and pressures of 135–155 mTorr. Two torsions embedded in a lattice are shown to amplify the kinetic energy and range of motion of particles located between the torsions to nearly three times that observed in single torsion systems. It is also shown that multiple torsions can interact via amplified particle energy when separated by up to 14 interparticle distances (Δ). The torsion separation distance also showed a positive linear trend with power and a slightly positive correlation with the pressure. This amplification of energy is possible due to the fact that multiple torsions in a lattice increase the interparticle distance of the lattice by 16% more than single torsion systems, leading to additional freedom of motion in the lattice plane. These combined findings show that multiple torsions heat the lattice differently depending on their separation from the other torsion. The midpoint particles between torsions absorb the majority of energy from the two torsions, and energy addition at the midpoint is nonlinear. The addition of more torsions to the lattice may lead to melting of the plasma crystal.

Wave-powered upwelling can increase the productivity and survivability of several aquaculture species. This enhancement is due to transporting cold, nutrient-rich ocean water, typically found lower in the water column, to the surface. Macroalgaes, like kelp, exhibit increased growth from these altered conditions. The University of New Hampshire’s (UNH) wave-powered water pump (wave pump) is a point absorber wave energy converter (WEC) that uses ocean waves to create relative motion between a spar buoy and a concentric float which drives an internal pump. A numerical model of the wave pump was developed using WEC-Sim to predict device performance in the ocean. Wave pump performance was evaluated during a five day ocean test near Appledore Island in Maine in March 2023, where volumetric flow rate, relative distance between spar and float, and wave conditions were measured. These data were then used for numerical model validation. The ocean deployment recorded the device’s performance in a variety of sea states, with average significant wave heights up to 0.7 m. The ocean test data were compared to the WEC-Sim numerical model of the device with favorable results. Average values of device stroke period, stroke height, and flow rate agreed between the ocean test and model data to within approximately 16 to 22%. Furthermore, the validated numerical model provides a valuable tool for improving the design and developing a commercial-scale, wave-powered water pump for use in aquaculture.