219 Search Results

Radiative forcing (RF) resulting from changes in surface albedo is increasingly recognized as a significant driver of global climate change but has not been adequately estimated, including by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports, compared with other warming agents. Here, we first present the physical foundation for modeling albedo-induced RF and the consequent global warming impact (GWI_Δα). We then highlight the shortcomings of available current databases and methodologies for calculating GWI_Δα at multiple temporal scales. There is a clear lack of comprehensive in situ measurements of albedo due to sparse geographic coverage of ground-based stations, whereas estimates from satellites suffer from biases due to the limited frequency of image collection, and estimates from earth system models (ESMs) suffer from very coarse spatial resolution land cover maps and associated albedo values in pre-determined lookup tables. Field measurements of albedo show large differences by ecosystem type and large diurnal and seasonal changes. As indicated from our findings in southwest Michigan, GWI_Δα is substantial, exceeding the RF_Δα values of IPCC reports. Inclusion of GWI_Δα to landowners and carbon credit markets for specific management practices are needed in future policies. We further identify four pressing research priorities: developing a comprehensive albedo database, pinpointing accurate reference sites within managed landscapes, refining algorithms for remote sensing of albedo by integrating geostationary and other orbital satellites, and integrating the GWI_Δα component into future ESMs.

This study delineates a meticulous exploration of technologies to enhance the energy efficiency of rooftop air conditioning units, employing the DOE/ORNL heat pump design model for comprehensive engineering design and optimization. A baseline rooftop air conditioning unit, featuring a 13 ton (45.7 kW) cooling capacity and a 17.9 integrated energy efficiency ratio, served as the point of departure for substantive efficiency enhancements. Key modifications included the consolidation of two refrigerant circuits into one, integrating three parallel 2-stage (dual-speed) compressors, fan replacements with high-efficiency substitutes. Notably, a lower global warming potential refrigerant, R452B, was evaluated as a substitute for R-410A, demonstrating better performance in the lab prototype. Further, the achieved measured integrated energy efficiency ratio of 21.4 in the lab prototype surpassed the baseline integrated energy efficiency ratio. Comparative evaluations between R410A and R452B indicated heightened efficiency with the latter, showcasing a lab-demonstrated integrated energy efficiency ratio of 22.4 at the rated capacity of 13.8 ton (48.5 kW) and 23.9 integrated energy efficiency ratio at the rated capacity of 10 ton (35.2 kW). This research underscores the successful development of a rigorous, energy efficient rooftop air conditioning unit prototype with noteworthy environmental and economic implications.

Lake-effect snow (LES) storms, characterized by heavy convective precipitation downwind of large lakes, pose significant coastal hazards with severe socioeconomic consequences in vulnerable areas. In this study, we investigate how devastating LES storms could evolve in the future by employing a storyline approach, using the LES storm that occurred over Buffalo, New York, in November 2022 as an example. Using a Pseudo-Global Warming method with a fully three-dimensional two-way coupled lake-land-atmosphere modeling system at a cloud-resolving 4 km resolution, we show a 14% increase in storm precipitation under the end-century warming. This increase in precipitation is accompanied by a transition in the precipitation form from predominantly snowfall to nearly equal parts snowfall and rainfall. Through additional simulations with isolated atmospheric and lake warming, we discerned that the warmer lake contributes to increased storm precipitation through enhanced evaporation while the warmer atmosphere contributes to the increase in the storm's rainfall, at the expense of snowfall. More importantly, this shift from snowfall to rainfall was found to nearly double the area experiencing another winter hazard, Rain-or-Snow. Our study provides a plausible future storyline for the Buffalo LES storm, focusing on understanding the intricate interplay between atmospheric and lake warming in shaping the future dynamics of LES storms. It emphasizes the importance of accurately capturing the changing lake-atmosphere dynamics during LES storms under future warming.

Precipitation plays a crucial role in Africa's agriculture, water resources, and economic stability, and assessing its potential changes under future warming is important. In this study, we demonstrate that the latest generation of coupled climate models (CMIP6) robustly project substantial wetting over western, central, and eastern Africa. In contrast, southern Africa and Madagascar tend toward future drying. Under shared socioeconomic pathways (defined by Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), our results suggest that most parts of Africa, except for southern Africa and Madagascar, will experience very wet years five times more often in 2050–2100, according to the multi-model median. Conversely, southern Africa and Madagascar will experience very dry years twice as often by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, we find that the increasing risk of extreme annual rainfall is accompanied by a shift toward days with heavier rainfall. Our findings provide important insights into inter-hemispheric changes in precipitation characteristics under future warming and underscore the need for serious mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Urbanization is usually ignored when estimating past changes in large-scale climate and for future climate projections since cities historically covered a small fraction of the Earth’s surface. Here, by combining global land surface temperature observations with historical estimates of urban area, we demonstrate that the urban contribution to continental- to regional-scale warming has become non-negligible, especially for rapidly urbanizing regions and countries in Asia. Consequently, expected urban expansion over the next century suggests further increased urban influence on large-scale surface climate in the future (approximately 0.16 K for North America and Europe for high-emission scenario in 2100). Based on these results, also seen for air temperature, we argue that, in line with other forms of land use/land cover change, urbanization should be explicitly included in climate change assessments. This requires incorporation of dynamic urban extent and biophysics in current-generation Earth system models to quantify potential urban feedback on the climate system across scales.

Diagnosing the role of internal variability over recent decades is critically important for both model validation and projections of future warming. Recent research suggests that for 1980–2022 internal variability manifested as Global Cooling and Arctic Warming (i-GCAW), leading to enhanced Arctic Amplification (AA), and suppressed global warming over this period. Here we show that such an i-GCAW is rare in CMIP6 large ensembles, but simulations that do produce similar i-GCAW exhibit a unique and robust internally driven global surface air temperature (SAT) trend pattern. This unique SAT trend pattern features enhanced warming in the Barents and Kara Sea and cooling in the Tropical Eastern Pacific and Southern Ocean. Given that these features are imprinted in the observed record over recent decades, this work suggests that internal variability makes a crucial contribution to the discrepancy between observations and model-simulated forced SAT trend patterns.

Manufactured homes, which are built in the factory and shipped to the site, provide economical housing for more than 20 million Americans. To improve energy measures and facilitate deployment of renewable energy systems to achieve net zero energy in manufactured homes, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) made public the Zero Energy Ready Home (ZERH) National Program Requirements for manufactured housing in 2022. To understand how these changes will impact the environment and the building’s durability, life cycle assessment and hygrothermal simulations were carried out for a standard manufactured home design and two ZERH designs in Knoxville, Tennessee. The embodied carbon and operational emissions were compared for the standard design and two ZERH designs for a service life of 60 years. Operational emissions were determined using the Building Energy Optimization tool, BEopt, and durability assessment was carried out using WUFI Pro. Life cycle assessment was performed in accordance with ISO 14040 using Athena’s Impact Estimator for buildings. Results indicate that the investment in embodied carbon of the zero energy ready homes is small relative to the savings in operational emissions. The increase in embodied carbon in the zero energy ready homes is offset by the reduction in operational emissions compared to the standard home for the first year of operation. With an investment of 59 kg CO₂ eq in embodied carbon, the reduction in operational emissions is approximately 680 kg CO₂ eq after one year compared to a construction that meets the prescriptive performance of the building code for manufactured housing.

Humid heatwaves, characterized by high temperature and humidity combinations, challenge tropical societies. Extreme wet-bulb temperatures (TW) over tropical land are coupled to the warmest sea surface temperatures by atmospheric convection and wave dynamics. Here, we harness this coupling for seasonal forecasts of the annual maximum of daily maximum TW (TW_max). We develop a multiple linear regression model that explains 80% of variance in tropical mean TW_max and significant regional TW_max variances. The model considers warming trends and El Niño and Southern Oscillation indices. Looking ahead, the strong-to-very-strong El Niño at the end of 2023, with an Oceanic Niño Index of ~2.0, suggests a 2024 tropical land mean TW_max of 26.2°C (25.9–26.4°C), and a 68% chance (24%–94%) of breaking existing records. This method also predicts regional TW_max in specific areas.

The observed rate of global warming since the 1970s has been proposed as a strong constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR)—key metrics of the global climate response to greenhouse-gas forcing. Using CMIP5/6 models, we show that the inter-model relationship between warming and these climate sensitivity metrics (the basis for the constraint) arises from a similarity in transient and equilibrium warming patterns within the models, producing an effective climate sensitivity (EffCS) governing recent warming that is comparable to the value of ECS governing long-term warming under CO₂ forcing. However, CMIP5/6 historical simulations do not reproduce observed warming patterns. When driven by observed patterns, even high ECS models produce low EffCS values consistent with the observed global warming rate. The inability of CMIP5/6 models to reproduce observed warming patterns thus results in a bias in the modeled relationship between recent global warming and climate sensitivity. Correcting for this bias means that observed warming is consistent with wide ranges of ECS and TCR extending to higher values than previously recognized. These findings are corroborated by energy balance model simulations and coupled model (CESM1-CAM5) simulations that better replicate observed patterns via tropospheric wind nudging or Antarctic meltwater fluxes. Because CMIP5/6 models fail to simulate observed warming patterns, proposed warming-based constraints on ECS, TCR, and projected global warming are biased low. Our results reinforce recent findings that the unique pattern of observed warming has slowed global-mean warming over recent decades and that how the pattern will evolve in the future represents a major source of uncertainty in climate projections.

Environmental regulations have driven the development of refrigerants with low global warming potential (GWP). To design heat exchangers using these new refrigerants, data are needed concerning the heat transfer coefficient and pressure drop in two-phase flow. Another change is the increasing use of aluminum tubes rather than copper tubes to reduce heat exchanger cost. Hence, this study presents an experimental investigation of flow condensation using an expanded axial micro-fin aluminum tube with a fin-tip diameter of 5.96 mm. Here, the experiments included single compounds R-32, R-1234yf, and R-1234ze(E), zeotropic mixtures with low glide (R-454B), and zeotropic mixtures with high-glide (R-454C and R-455A). Experiments were conducted at condensation temperatures ranging from 40 °C to 50 °C, reduced pressures ranging from 0.21 to 0.55, and mass fluxes ranging from 150 to 350 kg/(m² s). Data obtained for these refrigerants constitute one of the first reports for high-glide refrigerants using axial micro-fin aluminum tubes. An evaluation of heat transfer degradation of zeotropic mixtures due to mass transfer resistance at the liquid/vapor interface is presented. This information can be used to design heat exchangers for next generation air conditioning and refrigeration systems.