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  1. Optimal control of polar sea-ice near its tipping points

    Several Earth system components are at a high risk of undergoing rapid, irreversible qualitative changes or “tipping” with increasing climate warming. It is therefore necessary to investigate the feasibility of arresting or even reversing the crossing of tipping thresholds. Here, we study feedback control of an idealized energy balance model (EBM) for Earth’s climate, which exhibits a “small icecap” instability responsible for a rapid transition to an ice-free climate under increasing greenhouse gas forcing. We develop an optimal control strategy for the EBM under different forcing scenarios to reverse sea-ice loss while minimizing costs. Control is achievable for this system, but the cost nearly quadruples once the system tips. While thermal inertia may delay tipping, leading to an overshoot of the critical forcing threshold, this leeway comes with a steep rise in requisite control once tipping occurs. Additionally, we find that the optimal control is localized in the polar region.

  2. A generalized analytical energy balance model for evaluating agglomeration from a binary collision of wet particles

    Agglomeration of wet particles, i.e., particles coated with a thin liquid layer, is a common phenomenon in many processes like fluidized bed combustion of low rank fuels. The availability of an agglomeration model that can evaluate the outcome of a binary collision between wet particles differing in solid particle properties, liquid layer thicknesses, and initial collision (impact) speeds is essential for obtaining a comprehensive understanding on the existing processes experiencing wet particle agglomeration or for a successful development of new processes with high chances of wet particle agglomeration. This study presents a generalized agglomeration model on the basis of energy conservation before and after collision when colliding wet particles may differ in solid particle properties, liquid layer thicknesses, and impact speeds. The model was established based on the approximate values of energy losses that may happen during the collision. It incorporates body forces, solid-solid contacting, liquid capillary, and viscous contributions, as well as the liquid bridge volume effect. Predictions of the new model for collision outcomes of identical wet particles were like those from an analytical energy balance model developed recently by the group for identical wet particles. We also validated the new model by experimental data from literature. The results of a collision direction analysis indicated that the direction often has a minimal effect on the collision outcome in many practical scenarios. The results of Monte Carlo uncertainty analyses with the new model revealed that proper estimations of impact speed, under capillary limiting conditions, and thickness of coating layers and asperity heights, under viscous limiting conditions, are critical for the realistic prediction of collision outcomes at impact speeds close to critical impact speed, i.e., the minimum particle speed required for the particles to rebound.

  3. Status report on emerging photovoltaics

    This report provides a snapshot of emerging photovoltaic (PV) technologies. It consists of concise contributions from experts in a wide range of fields including silicon, thin film, III-V, perovskite, organic, and dye-sensitized PVs. Strategies for exceeding the detailed balance limit and for light managing are presented, followed by a section detailing key applications and commercialization pathways. A section on sustainability then discusses the need for minimization of the environmental footprint in PV manufacturing and recycling. The report concludes with a perspective based on broad survey questions presented to the contributing authors regarding the needs and future evolution of PV.

  4. Estimation of Surface Sensible Heat Flux due to Precipitation over CONUS and Its Impact on Urban Extreme Precipitation Modeling

    The surface sensible heat flux induced by precipitation (QP) is a consequence of the temperature difference between the surface and the rain droplets. Despite its seemingly negligible nature, QP is frequently omitted from both meteorological and climatological models. Nevertheless, it is important to acknowledge the numerous occasions in which the instantaneous values of QP can be significant, particularly during extreme precipitation events. This study undertakes a comprehensive assessment of QP across the contiguous United States (CONUS) utilizing high-resolution reanalysis, observational data, and numerical modeling to examine the influence of QP on precipitation and the surface energy budget. The findings indicate that the spatial distribution of QP climatology is analogous to that of precipitation, with magnitudes ranging from 2 to 3 W m-2 predominantly over the Midwest and Southeast regions. A seasonal analysis of QP reveals that the highest values occurring during the June–August (JJA) period, averaging 3.18 W m-2. Peak QP values of approximately 4 W m-2 are observed during JJA over the Great Plains region. We hypothesize that the QP during an extreme precipitation event would be nonnegligible and have a significant impact on the local weather. To test this conjecture, we perform high-resolution simulations with and without QP during an extreme precipitation event over the Chicago Metropolitan Area (CMA). The results show that the QP may be a dominant factor compared to other components of surface heat flux during the zenith of precipitation hours. Also, QP has the potential to not only diminish precipitation but also alter and reconfigure the remaining surface energy budget components.

  5. Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) Instrument Handbook

    A Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) has been installed collocated with each deployed ECOR system at the Southern Great Plains (SGP), North Slope of Alaska (NSA), Tropical Western Pacific (TWP), ARM Mobile Facility 1 (AMF1), and ARM Mobile Facility 2 (AMF2). The surface energy balance system consists of upwelling and downwelling solar and infrared radiometers within one net radiometer, a wetness sensor, and soil measurements. The SEBS measurements allow the comparison of ECOR sensible and latent heat fluxes with the energy balance determined from the SEBS and provide information on wetting of the sensors for data quality purposes.

  6. Hydrothermal but Not Mechanical Pretreatment of Wastewater Algae Enhanced Anaerobic Digestion Energy Balance due to Improved Biomass Disintegration and Methane Production Kinetics

    This study used pilot-scale high-rate algae ponds to assess algal–bacteria biomass productivity and wastewater nutrient removal as well as the impact of mechanical and hydrothermal pretreatments on biomass disintegration, methane production kinetics, and anaerobic digestion (AD) energy balance. Mechanical pretreatment had a minor effect on biomass disintegration and methane production. By contrast, hydrothermal pretreatment significantly reduced particle size and increased the solubilized organic matter content by 3.5 times. The methane yield and production rate increased by 20–55% and 20–85%, respectively, with the highest values achieved after pretreatment at 121 °C for 60 min. While the 1st-order and pseudo-1st-order reaction equation models fitted methane production from untreated biomass best (R2 > 0.993), the modified Gompertz sigmoidal-type model provided a superior fit for hydrothermally pretreated algae (R2 ≥ 0.99). The AD energy balance revealed that hydrothermal pretreatment improved the total energy output by 25–40%, with the highest values for volume-specific and mass-specific total energy outputs reaching 0.23 kW per digester m3 and 2.3 MW per ton of biomass volatile solids. Additionally, net energy recovery (energy output per biomass HHV) increased from 20% for untreated algae to 32–34% for hydrothermally pretreated algae, resulting in net energy ratio and net energy efficiency of 2.14 and 68%, respectively.

  7. CROCUS Urban Fluxes of CO₂, H₂O, and Turbulence at University of Illinois Chicago

    This dataset was collected at the UIC Plant Research Laboratory in Chicago, Illinois, as part of the Community Research on Climate and Urban Science (CROCUS) Urban Integrated Field Laboratory (UIFL) project, led by Argonne National Laboratory. The site provides continuous atmospheric flux measurements, focusing on CO₂, H₂O, and heat and momentum transport in an urban setting. The data is processed at 30 minutes interval using the Eddy Covariance method and includes quality control and diagnostic data generated by EddyPro software. The data is stored in the netCDF files following CF conventions.The UIC Plant Research Laboratory is located near major highways and urban infrastructure, including buildings and parking areas. The surrounding landscape consists of a mix of turf, plants, trees, and impervious surfaces such as concrete and asphalt, making it ideal for studying urban at for studies on urban sustainability, air quality, and the effects of urbanization on atmospheric processes on urban climate dynamics, air quality, and surface-atmosphere exchanges within the city of Chicago. This dataset is funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research (BER) program.

  8. Incorporating Wind Turbine Choice in High-Resolution Geospatial Supply Curve and Capacity Expansion Models

    To achieve national decarbonization goals, U.S. annual deployment of wind energy will need to increase by at least fivefold compared to the recent past. Modeling and analysis frameworks can help inform where and how wind energy deployment might occur and thereby help enable the achievement of decarbonization goals. However, most prior wind energy modeling and analysis studies rely on generalized representations of wind energy technologies. Since wind energy technology advancements are expected to increase the competitiveness of wind energy, it is important to incorporate more detailed representations of turbine technology into wind energy modeling. Here we present a new method that incorporates wind turbine choice into the technology representation of land-based wind energy in long-term planning models. Our method integrates three previously published modeling and analysis capabilities: 1) bottom-up cost modeling to estimate future technology costs, 2) geospatial modeling to represent siting decisions, and 3) power sector modeling to evaluate potential deployment. We refer to this approach as a "customized turbine choice" methodology because it creates a composite turbine scenario by choosing from multiple wind turbine technologies—using site-specific optimized turbine layout and selecting the least-cost technology at each location. We demonstrate the capabilities of this new modeling pipeline by examining how the selection of four different wind turbine configurations might evolve from 2021 through 2040. Our results show that using our customized turbine choice methodology could lead to higher estimates for wind future deployment, which indicates that more simplified modeling might underestimate the role that wind energy could play in meeting decarbonization goals. Future research is needed to further explore the implications of turbine choice and to better inform technology researchers, original equipment manufacturers, and other wind industry stakeholders about the market potential of different wind turbine technologies.

  9. Critical Contribution of Imbalanced Charge Loss to Performance Deterioration of Si-Based Lithium-Ion Cells during Calendar Aging

    Increasing the energy density of lithium-ion batteries, and thereby reducing costs, is a major target for industry and academic research. One of the best opportunities is to replace the traditional graphite anode with a high-capacity anode material, such as silicon. However, Si-based lithium-ion batteries have been widely reported to suffer from a limited calendar life for automobile applications. Heretofore, there lacks a fundamental understanding of calendar aging for rationally developing mitigation strategies. Both open-circuit voltage and voltage-hold aging protocols were utilized to characterize the aging behavior of Si-based cells. Particularly, a high-precision leakage current measurement was applied to quantitatively measure the rate of parasitic reactions at the electrode/electrolyte interface. The rate of parasitic reactions at the Si anode was found 5 times and 15 times faster than those of LiNi0.8Mn0.1Co0.1O2 and LiFePO4 cathodes, respectively. Here, the imbalanced charge loss from parasitic reactions plays a critical role in exacerbating performance deterioration. In addition, a linear relationship between capacity loss and charge consumption from parasitic reactions provides fundamental support to assess calendar life through voltage-hold tests. These new findings imply that longer calendar life can be achieved by suppressing parasitic reactions at the Si anode to balance charge consumption during calendar aging.

  10. Criterion validity of wrist accelerometry for assessing energy intake via the intake-balance technique

    Background: Intake-balance assessments measure energy intake (EI) by summing energy expenditure (EE) with concurrent change in energy storage (ΔES). Prior work has not examined the validity of such calculations when EE is estimated via open-source techniques for research-grade accelerometry devices. The purpose of this study was to test the criterion validity of accelerometry-based intake-balance methods for a wrist-worn ActiGraph device. Methods: Healthy adults (n = 24) completed two 14-day measurement periods while wearing an ActiGraph accelerometer on the non-dominant wrist. During each period, criterion values of EI were determined based on ΔES measured by dual X-ray absorptiometry and EE measured by doubly labeled water. A total of 11 prediction methods were tested, 8 derived from the accelerometer and 3 from non-accelerometry methods (e.g., diet recall; included for comparison). Group-level validity was assessed through mean bias, while individual-level validity was assessed through mean absolute error, mean absolute percentage error, and Bland–Altman analysis. Results: Mean bias for the three best accelerometry-based methods ranged from -167 to 124 kcal/day, versus -104 to 134 kcal/day for the non-accelerometry-based methods. The same three accelerometry-based methods had mean absolute error of 323–362 kcal/day and mean absolute percentage error of 18.1-19.3%, versus 353–464 kcal/day and 19.5-24.4% for the non-accelerometry-based methods. All 11 methods demonstrated systematic bias in the Bland–Altman analysis. Conclusions: Accelerometry-based intake-balance methods have promise for advancing EI assessment, but ongoing refinement is necessary. We provide an R package to facilitate implementation and refinement of accelerometry-based methods in future research (see paulhibbing.com/IntakeBalance).


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