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  1. Abstract not provided.
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  5. The Arctic region is rapidly changing in a way that will affect the rest of the world. Parts of Alaska, western Canada, and Siberia are currently warming at twice the global rate. This warming trend is accelerating permafrost deterioration, coastal erosion, snow and ice loss, and other changes that are a direct consequence of climate change. Climatologists have long understood that changes in the Arctic would be faster and more intense than elsewhere on the planet, but the degree and speed of the changes were underestimated compared to recent observations. Policy makers have not yet had time to examine themore » latest evidence or appreciate the nature of the consequences. Thus, the abruptness and severity of an unfolding Arctic climate crisis has not been incorporated into long-range planning. The purpose of this report is to briefly review the physical basis for global climate change and Arctic amplification, summarize the ongoing observations, discuss the potential consequences, explain the need for an objective risk assessment, develop scenarios for future change, review existing modeling capabilities and the need for better regional models, and finally to make recommendations for Sandia's future role in preparing our leaders to deal with impacts of Arctic climate change on national security. Accurate and credible regional-scale climate models are still several years in the future, and those models are essential for estimating climate impacts around the globe. This study demonstrates how a scenario-based method may be used to give insights into climate impacts on a regional scale and possible mitigation. Because of our experience in the Arctic and widespread recognition of the Arctic's importance in the Earth climate system we chose the Arctic as a test case for an assessment of climate impacts on national security. Sandia can make a swift and significant contribution by applying modeling and simulation tools with internal collaborations as well as with outside organizations. Because changes in the Arctic environment are happening so rapidly, a successful program will be one that can adapt very quickly to new information as it becomes available, and can provide decision makers with projections on the 1-5 year time scale over which the most disruptive, high-consequence changes are likely to occur. The greatest short-term impact would be to initiate exploratory simulations to discover new emergent and robust phenomena associated with one or more of the following changing systems: Arctic hydrological cycle, sea ice extent, ocean and atmospheric circulation, permafrost deterioration, carbon mobilization, Greenland ice sheet stability, and coastal erosion. Sandia can also contribute to new technology solutions for improved observations in the Arctic, which is currently a data-sparse region. Sensitivity analyses have the potential to identify thresholds which would enable the collaborative development of 'early warning' sensor systems to seek predicted phenomena that might be precursory to major, high-consequence changes. Much of this work will require improved regional climate models and advanced computing capabilities. Socio-economic modeling tools can help define human and national security consequences. Formal uncertainty quantification must be an integral part of any results that emerge from this work.« less
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  7. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) provides scientific infrastructure and data archives to the international Arctic research community through a national user facility, the ARM Climate Research Facility, located on the North Slope of Alaska. The ARM sites at Barrow and Atqasuk, Alaska have been collecting and archiving atmospheric data for more than 10 years. These data have been used for scientific investigation as well as remote sensing validations. Funding from the Recovery Act (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009) will be used to install new instruments and upgrade existing instruments at the North Slope sites. These instruments include:more » scanning precipitation radar; scanning cloud radar; automatic balloon launcher; high spectral resolution lidar; eddy correlation flux systems; and upgraded ceilometer, AERI, micropulse lidar, and millimeter cloud radar. Information on these planned additions and upgrades will be provided in our poster. An update on activities planned at Oliktok Point will also be provided.« less
  8. The National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) is an ambitious National Science Foundation sponsored project intended to accumulate and disseminate ecologically informative sensor data from sites among 20 distinct biomes found within the United States and Puerto Rico over a period of at least 30 years. These data are expected to provide valuable insights into the ecological impacts of climate change, land-use change, and invasive species in these various biomes, and thereby provide a scientific foundation for the decisions of future national, regional, and local policy makers. NEON's objectives are of substantial national and international importance, yet they must be achievedmore » with limited resources. Sandia National Laboratories was therefore contracted to examine four areas of significant systems engineering concern; specifically, alternatives to commercial electrical utility power for remote operations, approaches to data acquisition and local data handling, protocols for secure long-distance data transmission, and processes and procedures for the introduction of new instruments and continuous improvement of the sensor network. The results of these preliminary systems engineering evaluations are presented, with a series of recommendations intended to optimize the efficiency and probability of long-term success for the NEON enterprise.« less
  9. The ionospheric disturbance dynamo signature in geomagnetic variations is investigated using the National Center for Atmospheric Research Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model. The model results are tested against reference magnetically quiet time observations on 21 June 1993, and disturbance effects were observed on 11 June 1993. The model qualitatively reproduces the observed diurnal and latitude variations of the geomagnetic horizontal intensity and declination for the reference quiet day in midlatitude and low-latitude regions but underestimates their amplitudes. The patterns of the disturbance dynamo signature and its source 'anti-Sq' current system are well reproduced in the Northern Hemisphere. However, the model significantlymore » underestimates the amplitude of disturbance dynamo effects when compared with observations. Furthermore, the largest simulated disturbances occur at different local times than the observations. The discrepancies suggest that the assumed high-latitude storm time energy inputs in the model were not quantitatively accurate for this storm.« less
  10. No abstract prepared.

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"Zak, Bernard Daniel"

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