This paper compares the cost and effectiveness of several potential options that may be used to monitor silo-based ballistic missiles. Silo door monitoring can be used to verify that warheads removed to deactivate or download silo-based ballistic missiles have not been replaced. A precedent for monitoring warhead replacement using reentry vehicle on site inspections (RV-OSIs) and using satellites has been established by START-I and START-II. However, other monitoring options have the potential to be less expensive and more effective. Three options are the most promising if high verification confidence is desired: random monitoring using door sensors; random monitoring using mannedmore »
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Sandia National Laboratories has developed a computer based model called IVSEM (Integrated Verification System Evaluation Model) to estimate the performance of a nuclear detonation monitoring system. The IVSEM project was initiated in June 1994, by Sandia's Monitoring Systems and Technology Center and has been funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Nonproliferation and National Security (DOE/NN). IVSEM is a simple, ''top-level,'' modeling tool which estimates the performance of a Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) monitoring system and can help explore the impact of various sensor system concepts and technology advancements on CTBT monitoring. One of IVSEM's uniquemore »
This paper presents a framework for evaluating the technical merits of strategic ballistic missile de-alerting measures, and it uses the framework to evaluate a variety of possible measures for silo-based, land-mobile, and submarine-based missiles. De-alerting measures are defined for the purpose of this paper as reversible actions taken to increase the time or effort required to launch a strategic ballistic missile. The paper does not assess the desirability of pursuing a de-alerting program. Such an assessment is highly context dependent. The paper postulates that if de-alerting is desirable and is used as an arms control mechanism, de-alerting measures should satisfymore »
Creator / Author"EDENBURN,MICHAEL W."
Creator / Author