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  1. In recent years, household LED light bulbs (LED A lamps) have undergone a dramatic price decline. Since late 2011, we have been collecting data, on a weekly basis, for retail offerings of LED A lamps on the Internet. The resulting data set allows us to track the recent price decline in detail. LED A lamp prices declined roughly exponentially with time in 2011-2014, with decline rates of 28percent to 44percent per year depending on lumen output, and with higher-lumen lamps exhibiting more rapid price declines. By combining the Internet price data with publicly available lamp shipments indices for the USmore » market, it is also possible to correlate LED A lamp prices against cumulative production, yielding an experience curve for LED A lamps. In 2012-2013, LED A lamp prices declined by 20-25percent for each doubling in cumulative shipments. Similar analysis of historical data for other lighting technologies reveals that LED prices have fallen significantly more rapidly with cumulative production than did their technological predecessors, which exhibited a historical decline of 14-15percent per doubling of production.« less
  2. Ultrafast X-ray science is an exciting frontier that promises the visualization of electronic, atomic and molecular dynamics on atomic time and length scales. A largely unexplored area of ultrafast X-ray science is the use of light to control how X-rays interact with matter. To extend control concepts established for long-wavelength probes to the X-ray regime, the optical control field must drive a coherent electronic response on a timescale comparable to femtosecond core-hole lifetimes. An intense field is required to achieve this rapid response. Here, an intense optical control pulse is observed to efficiently modulate photoelectric absorption for X-rays and tomore » create an ultrafast transparency window. We demonstrate an application of X-ray transparency relevant to ultrafast X-ray sources: an all-photonic temporal cross-correlation measurement of a femtosecond X-ray pulse. The ability to control X-ray-matter interactions with light will create new opportunities for present and next-generation X-ray light sources.« less
  3. The National Institutes of Health (NIH) has proposed to partially fund the construction of the Howard T. Ricketts (HTR) regional biocontainment laboratory (RBL) by the University of Chicago at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Argonne National Laboratory in Argonne, Illinois. The HTR Laboratory (HTRL) would be constructed, owned, and operated by the University of Chicago on land leased to it by DOE. The preferred project site is located north of Eastwood Drive and west of Outer Circle Road and is near the biological sciences building. This environmental assessment addresses the potential environmental effects resulting from construction and operation ofmore » the proposed facility. The proposed project involves the construction of a research facility with a footprint up to approximately 44,000 ft{sup 2} (4,088 m{sup 2}). The proposed building would house research laboratories, including Biosafety Level 2 and 3 biocontainment space, animal research facilities, administrative offices, and building support areas. The NIH has identified a need for new facilities to support research on potential bioterrorism agents and emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases, to protect the nation from such threats to public health. This research requires specialized laboratory facilities that are designed, managed, and operated to protect laboratory workers and the surrounding community from accidental exposure to agents. The proposed HTRL would provide needed biocontainment space to researchers and promote the advancement of knowledge in the disciplines of biodefense and emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases. Several alternatives were considered for the location of the proposed facility, as well as a no action alternative. The preferred alternative includes the construction of a research facility, up to 44,000 ft{sup 2} (4,088 m{sup 2}), at Argonne National Laboratory, a secure government location. Potential impacts to natural and cultural resources have been evaluated in this document. The proposed activities would result in the conversion of approximately 4 acres (2 ha) of old field and open woodland for the proposed facility and landscaped areas. Impacts of the proposed project on the following resources would be minor or negligible: human health, socioeconomics, air quality, noise levels, water quality, waste management, land use, the visual environment, cultural resources, soils, terrestrial biota, wetlands or aquatic biota, threatened and endangered species, transportation, utilities and services, and environmental justice. This environmental assessment has been completed to satisfy the requirements of the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 and has been prepared in accordance with NIH guidelines and in coordination with federal, state, and local agency requirements. On the basis of the results of this assessment, impacts to environmental resources from the proposed project would be minor or negligible, provided that the project is implemented in accordance with the impact avoidance and mitigation measures described herein.« less
  4. This report presents an analysis of the relative impacts of the base-case scenario used in the Annual Energy Outlook 1997, published by the US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, on income quintile groups. Projected energy consumption and expenditures, and projected energy expenditures as a share of income, for the period 1993 to 2015 are reported. Projected consumption of electricity, natural gas, distillate fuel, and liquefied petroleum gas over this period is also reported for each income group. 33 figs., 11 tabs.
  5. Disruptions in the supply of strategic resources or other crucial factor inputs often present significant problems for planners and policymakers. The problem may be particularly significant at the regional level where higher levels of product specialization mean supply restrictions are more likely to affect leading regional industries. To maintain economic stability in the event of a supply restriction, regional planners may therefore need to evaluate the importance of market versus non-market systems for allocating the remaining supply of the disrupted resource to the region`s leading consuming industries. This paper reports on research that has attempted to show that large shortmore » term changes on the supply side do not lead to substantial changes in input coefficients and do not therefore mean the abandonment of the concept of the production function as has been suggested (Oosterhaven, 1988). The supply-driven model was tested for six sectors of the economy of Washington State and found to yield new input coefficients whose values were in most cases close approximations of their original values, even with substantial changes in supply. Average coefficient changes from a 50% output reduction in these six sectors were in the vast majority of cases (297 from a total of 315) less than +2.0% of their original values, excluding coefficient changes for the restricted input. Given these small changes, the most important issue for the validity of the supply-driven input-output model may therefore be the empirical question of the extent to which these coefficient changes are acceptable as being within the limits of approximation.« less
  6. Evaluating perception-based impacts of hazardous waste facilities has become an increasingly important part of socioeconomic impact assessments in recent years. One area of discussion has been the potential effect of risk perceptions on business location decision making. This report evaluates the importance of environmental amenities (broadly defined to include natural, cultural, and recreational features; environmental quality; and other indexes of quality of life) with respect to decisions on locating both manufacturing and business service activities. It discusses the major theoretical and empirical issues that arise in attempting to determine the effects of environmental amenities on the location choices for businessesmore » and business activities. This discussion is followed by a survey of major findings from the academic literature and a review of research by the state of Nevada. A number of recommendations for further research are also provided to help the US Department of Energy`s Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management better understand the importance of perception-based impacts in business location decision making and estimate the scale of socioeconomic impacts that would result from siting a high-level waste repository in Nevada.« less
  7. A recent trend in establishing regulatory policy regarding environmental cleanup has been the adoption of a risk-informed decision approach. This approach places an emphasis on the development of a defensible technical basis upon which cleanup decisions can be understood and accepted by stakeholders. The process has been exemplified by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) approach to implement its License Termination Rule in Title 10, Part 20, Subpart E of the Code of Federal Regulations (10 CFR 20, Subpart E), for which probabilistic radiological dose assessment has been a key technical element for demonstrating compliance. Further guidance including NUREG-1757 andmore » its supplemental document are also prepared for this purpose. The approach also entails extensive data collection to cover the range of parameter variability, along with interpretations of the probabilistic dose results and demonstration of compliance. One major remaining issue, however, involves the future use of the land following cleanup. Land use is a key factor that may profoundly influence dose assessment, which in turn will affect the level of cleanup and therefore the associated costs. Despite this, incorporation of land-use considerations into the current probabilistic dose assessment approach has not actually been performed in the regulatory process. In order to address the issue, a study was initiated to evaluate the potential influence of land use on dose analysis, to understand the possible ramifications in cleanup decision-making. A probabilistic distribution based on land use was developed as input into the probabilistic RESRAD analysis for the demonstration of this approach.. This results in an understanding of the characteristics of dose distributions as exhibited by various land-use scenarios. By factoring in the probability distribution of land-use scenarios, the potential 'levels of conservatism' can be explicitly defined and evaluated. The results allow the quantification of the potential influence of land-use scenario assumptions on the dose and the variations in the results by type of radionuclide as well as by regional land-use patterns. Further improvement of the study can be utilized to support the NRC's goal in achieving 'realistic conservatism' in its license termination activities. (authors)« less
  8. The emergency management planning tool RISK-RDD was developed to aid emergency response planners and decision makers at all levels of government to better understand and prepare for potential problems related to a radiological release, especially those in urban areas. Radioactive release scenarios were studied by using the RISK-RDD radiological emergency management program. The scenarios were selected to investigate the key aspects of radiological risk management not always considered in emergency planning as a whole. These aspects include the evaluation of both aerosolized and non-aerosolized components of an atmospheric release, methods of release, acute and chronic human health risks, and themore » concomitant economic impacts as a function of the risk-based cleanup level. (authors)« less
  9. This report evaluates recent research conducted by a contractor for the state of Nevada. The research was designed to identify industries for which the Las Vegas area might provide competitive locations for new and expansion investment; it made use of target industry analysis (TIA) to identify specific industries that might be part of the future economy of the region and thus provide a baseline for assessing the impact of the Yucca Mountain repository project. This report briefly describes three TIA approaches - the conventional simple screening approach, simultaneous approach, and an alternative hybrid approach - and analytical hierarchy modeling, whichmore » is another industry selection methodology. It evaluates the data, methodology, and findings of the state of Nevada study, and it also discusses additional measures of locational advantage and economic development that were not considered in the study. The report then examines how industries search for new locations and reviews methodologies that assess the predictability of industries choosing particular locations. The report concludes that, although the state of Nevada study provides a general impression of industries likely to locate in the Las Vegas area, the relatively simplistic TIA approach it uses and the additional refinements still needed to make TIA an accurate predictor of future economic structure cast some doubt on the validity of the research findings.« less

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