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Title: Global Carbon Budget 2015

Journal Article · · Earth System Science Data (Online)
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  1. Univ. of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom)
  2. CICERO, Oslo (Norway)
  3. CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra (Australia)
  4. Univ. of Exeter (United Kingdom)
  5. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
  6. Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA (United States)
  7. Univ. of Bristol (United Kingdom)
  8. Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (United States)
  9. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States)
  10. Karlsruhe Inst. of Technology (KIT) (Germany)
  11. Univ. of Miami, FL (United States); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Lab., Boulder, CO (United States)
  12. CEA-CNRS-UVSQ (France)
  13. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
  14. Aix-Marseille Univ., and CNRS/IN2P3, Marseille (France)
  15. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Pacific Marine Environmental Lab (PMEL), Seattle, WA (United States)
  16. InnovOcean site, Ostend (Belgium)
  17. Alfred Wegener Inst. for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhave (Germany)
  18. Max Planck Inst. for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany)
  19. Univ. of Illinois, Urbana, IL (United States)
  20. Inst. of Applied Energy (IAE), Tokyo (Japan)
  21. Plymouth Marine Lab. (United Kingdom)
  22. Hague/ Bilthoven and Utrecht Univ. (Netherlands)
  23. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
  24. Univ. of Zurich (Switzerland)
  25. Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway)
  26. Sorbonne Univ., Paris (France)
  27. CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Tasmania (Australia)
  28. Univ. of Miami, FL (United States)
  29. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
  30. Japan Agency for Marine-Eart Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Yokosuka (Japan)
  31. National Inst. for Environmental Studies (NIES), Ibaraki (Japan)
  32. Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
  33. Univ. of Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway)
  34. Fisheries Research Agency, Yokohama (Japan)
  35. Marine Research Inst. (CSIC), Pontevedra (Spain)
  36. Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States)
  37. Leibniz Inst. for Baltic Sea Research Warnemunde, Rostock (Germany)
  38. Max Planck Society, Jena (Germany). Max Planck Inst. for Biogeochemistry
  39. Japan Meteorological Agency, Tokyo (Japan)
  40. National Centre for Meteorological Research (CNRM)
  41. GEOMAR Helmholtz Center for Ocean Research Kiel (Germany)
  42. Univ. of Bern (Switzerland); Imperial College, Berkshire (United Kingdom)
  43. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Pacific Marine Environmental Lab (PMEL), Seattle, WA (United States); Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
  44. Columbia Univ., Palisades, NY (United States). Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory
  45. CSIRO Oceans and Atmospher and Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Co-operative Research Center, Hobart (Australia)
  46. Wageningen Univ. (Netherlands); ICOS-Carbon Portal, Wageningen (Netherlands)
  47. VU Univ. Amsterdam (Netherlands)
  48. Royal Netherlands Inst. for Sea Research, Texel (Netherlands)
  49. Univ. of New Hampshire, Durham, NH (United States)
  50. Met Office Hadley Center, Exeter (United Kingdom)
+ Show Author Affiliations

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We also discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. Moreover, the mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2005–2014), EFF was 9.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, GATM was 4.4 ± 0.1 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND was 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr-1. For the year 2014 alone, EFF grew to 9.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, 0.6 % above 2013, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, albeit at a slower rate compared to the average growth of 2.2 % yr-1 that took place during 2005–2014. Also, for 2014, ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, GATM was 3.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr-1. GATM was lower in 2014 compared to the past decade (2005–2014), reflecting a larger SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 397.15 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2014. For 2015, preliminary data indicate that the growth in EFF will be near or slightly below zero, with a projection of -0.6 [range of -1.6 to +0.5] %, based on national emissions projections for China and the USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy for the rest of the world. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2015, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 555 ± 55 GtC (2035 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2015, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. Finally, this living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2015).

Research Organization:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-00OR22725; AC02-05CH11231
OSTI ID:
1265897
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1378688
Journal Information:
Earth System Science Data (Online), Vol. 7, Issue 2; ISSN 1866-3516
Publisher:
CopernicusCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 534 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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Decadal variability in twentieth-century ocean acidification in the California Current Ecosystem journal December 2019
Global Carbon Budget 2016 text January 2016
A comparison of posterior atmospheric CO 2 adjustments obtained from in situ and GOSAT constrained flux inversions journal January 2018
A comprehensive review of sectorial contribution towards greenhouse gas emissions and progress in carbon capture and storage in Pakistan journal May 2019
The Moderating Effect of Innovation on the Relationship between Urbanization and CO2 Emissions: Evidence from Three Major Urban Agglomerations in China journal March 2019
Direct and indirect climate change effects on carbon dioxide fluxes in a thawing boreal forest-wetland landscape journal March 2017
Influence of Land-Use Intensification on Vegetation C-Stocks in an Alpine Valley from 1865 to 2003 journal March 2017
Negative emissions from stopping deforestation and forest degradation, globally journal September 2017
Anthropogenic carbon release rate unprecedented during the past 66 million years journal March 2016
LPJmL4 – a dynamic global vegetation model with managed land – Part 1: Model description journal January 2018
Agroforestry: a sustainable environmental practice for carbon sequestration under the climate change scenarios—a review journal March 2017
Aerosol climate change effects on land ecosystem services journal January 2017
Effects of contemporary land-use and land-cover change on the carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems in the United States journal March 2018
Symbiotic N fixation is sufficient to support net aboveground biomass accumulation in a humid tropical forest journal May 2019
Using present-day observations to detect when anthropogenic change forces surface ocean carbonate chemistry outside pre-industrial bounds posted_content March 2016
Electrified methane reforming: A compact approach to greener industrial hydrogen production journal May 2019
Long-term alkalinity trends in the Baltic Sea and their implications for CO 2 -induced acidification: Baltic Sea Alkalinity Trends journal July 2016
A Global, 0.05-Degree Product of Solar-Induced Chlorophyll Fluorescence Derived from OCO-2, MODIS, and Reanalysis Data journal March 2019
Impacts of Nitrogen Deposition on Forest Ecosystem Services and Biodiversity book February 2019
Current challenges of implementing anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change in models contributing to climate change assessments journal January 2017
Improving the LPJmL4-SPITFIRE vegetation–fire model for South America using satellite data journal January 2019
Development of a high-resolution spatial inventory of greenhouse gas emissions for Poland from stationary and mobile sources journal February 2018
Surface ocean carbon dioxide variability in South Pacific boundary currents and Subantarctic waters journal May 2019
Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C journal June 2016
Reaching peak emissions journal December 2015
Is the future of agriculture perennial? Imperatives and opportunities to reinvent agriculture by shifting from annual monocultures to perennial polycultures journal January 2018
Assessment of Forest Above-Ground Biomass Estimation from PolInSAR in the Presence of Temporal Decorrelation journal May 2018
A global synthesis inversion analysis of recent variability in CO 2 fluxes using GOSAT and in situ observations journal January 2018
Soil respiration in Chinese tea gardens: autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration: Autotrophic and heterotrophic respiration journal May 2018
China CO2 emission accounts 1997–2015 journal January 2018
Emission budgets and pathways consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 °C journal September 2017
The eMLR(C*) Method to Determine Decadal Changes in the Global Ocean Storage of Anthropogenic CO 2 journal April 2018
Biophysics and vegetation cover change: a process-based evaluation framework for confronting land surface models with satellite observations journal March 2018
Mycorrhizal association as a primary control of the CO 2 fertilization effect journal June 2016
Pacific Anthropogenic Carbon Between 1991 and 2017 text January 2019
Increased fitness of a key appendicularian zooplankton species under warmer, acidified seawater conditions journal January 2018
Thailand Energy System Transition to Keep Warming Below 1.5 Degrees journal September 2018
21st Century drought-related fires counteract the decline of Amazon deforestation carbon emissions journal February 2018
Constraining estimates of global soil respiration by quantifying sources of variability journal June 2018
The compact Earth system model OSCAR v2.2: description and first results journal January 2017
Forest degradation impacts on carbon stocks, tree density and regeneration status in banj oak forests of Central Himalaya journal December 2019
How have carbon stocks in central and southern Africa’s miombo woodlands changed over the last 50 years? A systematic map of the evidence journal July 2018
Historical carbon dioxide emissions caused by land-use changes are possibly larger than assumed journal January 2017
Accounting for forest age in the tile-based dynamic global vegetation model JSBACH4 (4.20p7; git feature/forests) – a land surface model for the ICON-ESM journal January 2020
Precipitation and carbon-water coupling jointly control the interannual variability of global land gross primary production journal December 2016
Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C journal March 2018
Towards accepted procedures for calculating international consumption-based carbon accounts journal February 2020
Land use change and El Niño-Southern Oscillation drive decadal carbon balance shifts in Southeast Asia text January 2018
Ecosystem management and land conservation can substantially contribute to California’s climate mitigation goals text January 2017
Simulating CH4 and CO2 over South and East Asia using the zoomed chemistry transport model LMDz-INCA journal January 2018
The role of soil pH on soil carbonic anhydrase activity posted_content August 2017
Global challenges and adaptations in management practices to preserve soil carbon pool with changing climate journal July 2018
National mitigation potential from natural climate solutions in the tropics. text January 2020
Positive biodiversity-productivity relationship predominant in global forests text January 2016
Environmental control of carbon allocation matters for modelling forest growth journal November 2016
Global Carbon Budget 2017 journal January 2018
Global Carbon Budget 2017 text January 2018
Carbon Dynamics in a Human-Modified Tropical Forest: A Case Study Using Multi-Temporal LiDAR Data journal January 2020
Important evidence of constant low CO2 windows and impacts on the non-closure of the greenhouse effect journal March 2019
A successful prediction of the record CO 2 rise associated with the 2015/2016 El Niño journal October 2018
Transient dynamics of terrestrial carbon storage: mathematical foundation and its applications journal January 2017
Current challenges of implementing anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change in models contributing to climate change assessments text January 2017
Understanding the origin of Paris Agreement emission uncertainties journal June 2017
Holocene peatland and ice-core data constraints on the timing and magnitude of CO₂ emissions from past land use text January 2017
Re-evaluating the 1940s CO 2 plateau journal January 2016
Carbon capture induced changes in Deccan basalt: a mass‐balance approach journal September 2019
Greenhouse gas simulations with a coupled meteorological and transport model: the predictability of CO 2 journal January 2016
White Arctic vs. Blue Arctic: A case study of diverging stakeholder responses to environmental change journal August 2016
Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Variability journal January 2016
Monitoring individual tree-based change with airborne lidar journal April 2018
Ecosystem management and land conservation can substantially contribute to California’s climate mitigation goals journal November 2017
White Arctic vs. Blue Arctic: A case study of diverging stakeholder responses to environmental change text January 2016
Technological assessment and modeling of energy‐related CO 2 emissions for the G8 countries by using hybrid IWO algorithm based on SVM journal April 2020
Selection biases and spillovers from collective conservation incentives in the Peruvian Amazon journal April 2019
Reviews and syntheses: An empirical spatiotemporal description of the global surface–atmosphere carbon fluxes: opportunities and data limitations journal January 2017
Temporal response of soil organic carbon after grassland-related land-use change journal June 2018
Description and validation of an intermediate complexity model for ecosystem photosynthesis and evapotranspiration: ACM-GPP-ETv1 journal January 2019
Reviews and syntheses: Systematic Earth observations for use in terrestrial carbon cycle data assimilation systems journal January 2017
A global estimate of terrestrial net secondary production of primary consumers journal September 2019
Global bounds on nitrogen gas emissions from humid tropical forests journal March 2017
Questioning emissions-based approaches for the definition of REDD+ deforestation baselines in high forest cover/low deforestation countries journal October 2018
Simultaneous Assimilation of Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture and FAPAR for Improving Terrestrial Carbon Fluxes at Multiple Sites Using CCDAS journal December 2018
Global Carbon Budget 2019 text January 2019
Photosynthetic productivity and its efficiencies in ISIMIP2a biome models: benchmarking for impact assessment studies journal July 2017
Sustainable intensification of agriculture for human prosperity and global sustainability journal July 2016
The Southern Ocean as a constraint to reduce uncertainty in future ocean carbon sinks journal January 2016
Global fire emissions estimates during 1997–2016 journal January 2017
National mitigation potential from natural climate solutions in the tropics
  • Griscom, Bronson W.; Busch, Jonah; Cook-Patton, Susan C.
  • Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Vol. 375, Issue 1794 https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2019.0126
journal January 2020
Whose carbon is burnable? Equity considerations in the allocation of a “right to extract” journal May 2018
High atmosphere–ocean exchange of semivolatile aromatic hydrocarbons journal May 2016
Using present-day observations to detect when anthropogenic change forces surface ocean carbonate chemistry outside preindustrial bounds journal January 2016
Catalytic activity of hydrotalcite-derived catalysts in the dry reforming of methane: on the effect of Ce promotion and feed gas composition journal March 2017
Assimilation of repeated woody biomass observations constrains decadal ecosystem carbon cycle uncertainty in aggrading forests: CONSTRAINING BIOMASS AND SOIL C CYCLES journal March 2017
The key role of forests in meeting climate targets requires science for credible mitigation journal February 2017
Reducing uncertainty in projections of terrestrial carbon uptake journal April 2017
Greenhouse gas measurements from a UK network of tall towers: technical description and first results journal January 2018
A review of the major drivers of the terrestrial carbon uptake: model-based assessments, consensus, and uncertainties journal September 2019
Research priorities for negative emissions journal November 2016
Understanding End‐of‐Century Snowpack Changes Over California's Sierra Nevada journal January 2019
Implications of overestimated anthropogenic CO2 emissions on East Asian and global land CO2 flux inversion dataset May 2017
Beyond greenness: Detecting temporal changes in photosynthetic capacity with hyperspectral reflectance data journal December 2017
Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems journal March 2017
In situ soil COS exchange of a temperate mountain grassland under simulated drought journal January 2017
Shelled pteropods in peril: Assessing vulnerability in a high CO 2 ocean journal June 2017
Impact of deforestation and climate on the Amazon Basin’s above-ground biomass during 1993–2012 journal November 2017
Fire carbon emissions over maritime southeast Asia in 2015 largest since 1997 journal May 2016
Improving carbon monitoring and reporting in forests using spatially-explicit information journal October 2016
The implications of COP21 for our future climate journal December 2016
Chapter 10. Trees have Already been Invented: Carbon in Woodlands journal January 2016
Below versus above Ground Plant Sources of Abscisic Acid (ABA) at the Heart of Tropical Forest Response to Warming journal July 2018

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