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Title: A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback

Journal Article · · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. A, Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
 [1];  [2];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [8];  [9];  [5];  [10];  [11];  [12];  [10];  [13];  [14];  [15];  [16];  [17] more »;  [15];  [18];  [19];  [15];  [11];  [8];  [9];  [20] « less
  1. Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Earth Sciences Division
  2. Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States). Center for Ecosystem Science and Society
  3. Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States). Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering; Arizona State Univ., Tempe, AZ (United States). School of Earth and Space Exploration
  4. Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom)
  5. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Environmental Sciences Division
  6. Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States). Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering
  7. Lab. des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), Gif-sur-Yvette (France)
  8. Alfred Wegener Inst., Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam (Germany). Periglacial Research Unit
  9. U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA (United States)
  10. Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Physical Geography. Bolin Centre of Climate Research
  11. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States). National Snow and Ice Data Center
  12. CNRS and Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble (France). Lab. de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l'Environnement
  13. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States). Climate and Global Dynamics Division
  14. Univ. of Victoria, BC (Canada). School of Earth and Ocean Sciences
  15. Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). Geophysical Inst. Permafrost Lab.
  16. Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States). US Geological Survey. Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit
  17. Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA (United States)
  18. Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton, AB (Canada). Dept. of Renewable Resources
  19. Lab. des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), Gif-sur-Yvette (France); CNRS and Univ. Grenoble Alpes, Grenoble (France). Lab. de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l'Environnement
  20. Univ. of Ontario, Guelph, ON (Canada). Dept. of Integrative Biology
+ Show Author Affiliations

We present an approach to estimate the feedback from large-scale thawing of permafrost soils using a simplified, data-constrained model that combines three elements: soil carbon (C) maps and profiles to identify the distribution and type of C in permafrost soils; incubation experiments to quantify the rates of C lost after thaw; and models of soil thermal dynamics in response to climate warming. We call the approach the Permafrost Carbon Network Incubation-Panarctic Thermal scaling approach (PInc-PanTher). The approach assumes that C stocks do not decompose at all when frozen, but once thawed follow set decomposition trajectories as a function of soil temperature. The trajectories are determined according to a three-pool decomposition model fitted to incubation data using parameters specific to soil horizon types. We calculate litterfall C inputs required to maintain steady-state C balance for the current climate, and hold those inputs constant. Soil temperatures are taken from the soil thermal modules of ecosystem model simulations forced by a common set of future climate change anomalies under two warming scenarios over the period 2010 to 2100. Under a medium warming scenario (RCP4.5), the approach projects permafrost soil C losses of 12.2-33.4 Pg C; under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), the approach projects C losses of 27.9-112.6 Pg C. Projected C losses are roughly linearly proportional to global temperature changes across the two scenarios. These results indicate a global sensitivity of frozen soil C to climate change (γ sensitivity) of -14 to -19 PgC°C -1 on a 100 year time scale. For CH 4 emissions, our approach assumes a fixed saturated area and that increases in CH 4 emissions are related to increased heterotrophic respiration in anoxic soil, yielding CH 4 emission increases of 7% and 35% for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, which add an additional greenhouse gas forcing of approximately 10-18%. The simplified approach presented here neglects many important processes that may amplify or mitigate C release from permafrost soils, but serves as a data-constrained estimate on the forced, large-scale permafrost C response to warming.

Research Organization:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
Contributing Organization:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC02-05CH11231; SC0006982; FC03-97ER62402/A010; ARC-1048997; ARC-1048987
OSTI ID:
1265528
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1257635; OSTI ID: 1378647
Journal Information:
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. A, Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 373, Issue 2054; ISSN 1364-503X
Publisher:
The Royal Society PublishingCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 134 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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Amount and timing of permafrost carbon release in response to climate warming journal April 2011
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Organic-matter quality of deep permafrost carbon text January 2019
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Cited By (44)

Quantifying the Effects of Snowpack on Soil Thermal and Carbon Dynamics of the Arctic Terrestrial Ecosystems journal April 2018
Short and Long-Term Controls on Active Layer and Permafrost Carbon Turnover Across the Arctic journal February 2018
The role of driving factors in historical and projected carbon dynamics of upland ecosystems in Alaska journal December 2017
The role of environmental driving factors in historical and projected carbon dynamics of wetland ecosystems in Alaska journal December 2016
Assessing historical and projected carbon balance of Alaska: A synthesis of results and policy/management implications journal July 2018
Holocene thermokarst and pingo development in the Kolyma Lowland (NE Siberia) journal July 2018
Redox and temperature-sensitive changes in microbial communities and soil chemistry dictate greenhouse gas loss from thawed permafrost journal July 2017
A Large Committed Long-Term Sink of Carbon due to Vegetation Dynamics journal October 2018
Increasing Organic Carbon Biolability With Depth in Yedoma Permafrost: Ramifications for Future Climate Change journal July 2019
Legacy of Holocene Landscape Changes on Soil Biogeochemistry: A Perspective From Paleo‐Active Layers in Northwestern Canada journal September 2019
Rapid CO 2 Release From Eroding Permafrost in Seawater journal October 2019
Permafrost collapse is accelerating carbon release journal April 2019
Quantifying global soil carbon losses in response to warming journal November 2016
Limited contribution of permafrost carbon to methane release from thawing peatlands journal June 2017
Determinants of carbon release from the active layer and permafrost deposits on the Tibetan Plateau journal October 2016
Methane emissions proportional to permafrost carbon thawed in Arctic lakes since the 1950s journal August 2016
21st-century modeled permafrost carbon emissions accelerated by abrupt thaw beneath lakes journal August 2018
Controls of soil organic matter on soil thermal dynamics in the northern high latitudes journal July 2019
Path-dependent reductions in CO2 emission budgets caused by permafrost carbon release journal September 2018
Carbon release through abrupt permafrost thaw journal February 2020
Reduced arctic tundra productivity linked with landform and climate change interactions journal February 2018
Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change journal March 2018
Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene journal August 2018
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment journal March 2016
Spatial variation in vegetation productivity trends, fire disturbance, and soil carbon across arctic-boreal permafrost ecosystems journal September 2016
Pathway-dependent fate of permafrost region carbon journal August 2018
Divergent patterns of experimental and model-derived permafrost ecosystem carbon dynamics in response to Arctic warming journal October 2018
The permafrost carbon inventory on the Tibetan Plateau: a new evaluation using deep sediment cores journal March 2016
Warming of subarctic tundra increases emissions of all three important greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide journal December 2016
Direct and indirect climate change effects on carbon dioxide fluxes in a thawing boreal forest-wetland landscape journal March 2017
Networking our science to characterize the state, vulnerabilities, and management opportunities of soil organic matter journal September 2017
Ecosystem carbon response of an Arctic peatland to simulated permafrost thaw journal February 2019
Terrestrial biosphere models underestimate photosynthetic capacity and CO 2 assimilation in the Arctic journal September 2017
Quantifying uncertainties of permafrost carbon–climate feedbacks journal January 2017
Carbon stocks and fluxes in the high latitudes: using site-level data to evaluate Earth system models journal January 2017
Increasing coastal slump activity impacts the release of sediment and organic carbon into the Arctic Ocean journal January 2018
Organic matter characteristics in yedoma and thermokarst deposits on Baldwin Peninsula, west Alaska journal January 2018
Evaluation of terrestrial pan-Arctic carbon cycling using a data-assimilation system journal January 2019
ORCHIDEE MICT-LEAK (r5459), a global model for the production, transport, and transformation of dissolved organic carbon from Arctic permafrost regions – Part 1: Rationale, model description, and simulation protocol journal January 2019
Process-level model evaluation: a snow and heat transfer metric journal January 2017
Organic matter characteristics in yedoma and thermokarst deposits on Baldwin Peninsula, west Alaska text January 2020
Path-dependent reductions in CO2 emission budgets caused by permafrost carbon release text January 2018
A Large Committed Long-Term Sink of Carbon due to Vegetation Dynamics text January 2018
Protection of Permafrost Soils from Thawing by Increasing Herbivore Density journal March 2020

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Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
permafrost
climate change
carbon-climate feedbacks
methane
carbon–climate feedbacks