U.S. Department of EnergyOffice of Scientific and Technical Information
Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment
Abstract
Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scales and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.
- Authors:
-
- North Carolina State Univ., Asheville, NC (United States). Cooperative Inst. for Climate and Satellites-North Carolina; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Asheville, NC (United States). National Centers for Environmental Information
- Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States)
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Silver Spring,MD (United States). Climate Program Office
- Publication Date:
- Research Org.:
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
- Sponsoring Org.:
- USDOE Office of Science (SC); National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
- OSTI Identifier:
- 1255379
- Report Number(s):
- PNNL-SA-116569
Journal ID: ISSN 0165-0009; KP1703030
- Grant/Contract Number:
- AC05-76RL01830
- Resource Type:
- Journal Article: Accepted Manuscript
- Journal Name:
- Climatic Change
- Additional Journal Information:
- Journal Volume: 135; Journal Issue: 1; Journal ID: ISSN 0165-0009
- Publisher:
- Springer
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
- Subject:
- 54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Citation Formats
Kunkel, Kenneth E., Moss, Richard, and Parris, Adam. Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment. United States: N. p., 2015.
Web. doi:10.1007/s10584-015-1494-z.
Kunkel, Kenneth E., Moss, Richard, & Parris, Adam. Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment. United States. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1494-z
Kunkel, Kenneth E., Moss, Richard, and Parris, Adam. 2015.
"Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment". United States. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1494-z. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1255379.
@article{osti_1255379,
title = {Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment},
author = {Kunkel, Kenneth E. and Moss, Richard and Parris, Adam},
abstractNote = {Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scales and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.},
doi = {10.1007/s10584-015-1494-z},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1255379},
journal = {Climatic Change},
issn = {0165-0009},
number = 1,
volume = 135,
place = {United States},
year = {Sat Aug 29 00:00:00 EDT 2015},
month = {Sat Aug 29 00:00:00 EDT 2015}
}
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journal, November 2010
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Works referencing / citing this record:
Rising Sea Levels: Helping Decision-Makers Confront the Inevitable
text, January 2019
- Hall, John A.; Weaver, Christopher P.; Obeysekera, Jayantha
- Taylor & Francis
Rising Sea Levels: Helping Decision-Makers Confront the Inevitable
text, January 2019
- Hall, John A.; Weaver, Christopher P.; Obeysekera, Jayantha
- Figshare
Rising Sea Levels: Helping Decision-Makers Confront the Inevitable
journal, January 2019
- Hall, John A.; Weaver, Christopher P.; Obeysekera, Jayantha
- Coastal Management, Vol. 47, Issue 2
Rising Sea Levels: Helping Decision-Makers Confront the Inevitable
text, January 2019
- Hall, John A.; Weaver, Christopher P.; Obeysekera, Jayantha
- Figshare