From documentation to prediction: Raising the bar for thermokarst research

Journal Article · Thu Nov 12 00:00:00 EST 2015 · Hydrogeology Journal

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-015-1331-5· OSTI ID:1255071

Rowland, Joel C. ^[1]; Coon, Ethan T. ^[1]

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1. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Here we report that to date the majority of published research on thermokarst has been directed at documenting its form, occurrence, and rates of occurrence. The fundamental processes driving thermokarst have long been largely understood. However, the detailed physical couplings between, water, air, soil, and the thermal dynamics governing freeze-thaw and soil mechanics is less understood and not captured in models aimed at predicting the response of frozen soils to warming and thaw. As computational resources increase more sophisticated mechanistic models can be applied; these show great promise as predictive tools. These models will be capable of simulating the response of soil deformation to thawing/freezing cycles and the long-term, non-recoverable response of the land surface to the loss of ice. At the same time, advances in remote sensing of permafrost environments also show promise in providing detailed and spatially extensive estimates in the rates and patterns of subsidence. These datasets provide key constraints to calibrate and evaluate the predictive power of mechanistic models. In conclusion, in the coming decade, these emerging technologies will greatly increase our ability to predict when, where, and how thermokarst will occur in a changing climate.

• Research Organization: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
• Grant/Contract Number: AC52-06NA25396; ERKP757
• OSTI ID: 1255071
• Report Number(s): LA-UR-15-25552; PII: 1331
• Journal Information: Hydrogeology Journal, Vol. 24, Issue 3; ISSN 1431-2174
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
subsidence
thermokarst
permafrost
geohazards