Indirect aerosol effect increases CMIP5 models projected Arctic warming

Chylek, Petr; Vogelsang, Timothy J.; Klett, James D.; Hengartner, Nicholas; Higdon, Dave; Lesins, Glen; Dubey, Manvendra K.

doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0362.1

Title: Indirect aerosol effect increases CMIP5 models projected Arctic warming

Journal Article · Sat Feb 20 00:00:00 EST 2016 · Journal of Climate

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0362.1· OSTI ID:1239570

Chylek, Petr ^[1]; Vogelsang, Timothy J. ^[2]; Klett, James D. ^[3]; Hengartner, Nicholas ^[1]; Higdon, Dave ^[4]; Lesins, Glen ^[5]; Dubey, Manvendra K. ^[1]

Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Michigan State Univ., East Lansing, MI (United States)
Par Associates, Las Cruces, NM (United States); New Mexico State Univ., Las Cruces, NM (United States)
Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State Univ. (Virginia Tech), Blacksburg, VA (United States)
Dalhousie Univ., Halifax, NS (Canada)

Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) climate models’ projections of the 2014–2100 Arctic warming under radiative forcing from representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) vary from 0.9° to 6.7°C. Climate models with or without a full indirect aerosol effect are both equally successful in reproducing the observed (1900–2014) Arctic warming and its trends. However, the 2014–2100 Arctic warming and the warming trends projected by models that include a full indirect aerosol effect (denoted here as AA models) are significantly higher (mean projected Arctic warming is about 1.5°C higher) than those projected by models without a full indirect aerosol effect (denoted here as NAA models). The suggestion is that, within models including full indirect aerosol effects, those projecting stronger future changes are not necessarily distinguishable historically because any stronger past warming may have been partially offset by stronger historical aerosol cooling. In conclusion, the CMIP5 models that include a full indirect aerosol effect follow an inverse radiative forcing to equilibrium climate sensitivity relationship, while models without it do not.

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Research Organization:: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC52-06NA25396

OSTI ID:: 1239570

Report Number(s):: LA-UR-15-27649

Journal Information:: Journal of Climate, Vol. 29, Issue 4; ISSN 0894-8755

Publisher:: American Meteorological SocietyCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 19 works

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