skip to main content
OSTI.GOV title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Prediction of Lumen Output and Chromaticity Shift in LEDs Using Kalman Filter and Extended Kalman Filter Based Models

Abstract

Abstract— Solid-state lighting (SSL) luminaires containing light emitting diodes (LEDs) have the potential of seeing excessive temperatures when being transported across country or being stored in non-climate controlled warehouses. They are also being used in outdoor applications in desert environments that see little or no humidity but will experience extremely high temperatures during the day. This makes it important to increase our understanding of what effects high temperature exposure for a prolonged period of time will have on the usability and survivability of these devices. Traditional light sources “burn out” at end-of-life. For an incandescent bulb, the lamp life is defined by B50 life. However, the LEDs have no filament to “burn”. The LEDs continually degrade and the light output decreases eventually below useful levels causing failure. Presently, the TM-21 test standard is used to predict the L70 life of LEDs from LM-80 test data. Several failure mechanisms may be active in a LED at a single time causing lumen depreciation. The underlying TM-21 Model may not capture the failure physics in presence of multiple failure mechanisms. Correlation of lumen maintenance with underlying physics of degradation at system-level is needed. In this paper, Kalman Filter (KF) and Extended Kalman Filtersmore » (EKF) have been used to develop a 70-percent Lumen Maintenance Life Prediction Model for LEDs used in SSL luminaires. Ten-thousand hour LM-80 test data for various LEDs have been used for model development. System state at each future time has been computed based on the state space at preceding time step, system dynamics matrix, control vector, control matrix, measurement matrix, measured vector, process noise and measurement noise. The future state of the lumen depreciation has been estimated based on a second order Kalman Filter model and a Bayesian Framework. Life prediction of L70 life for the LEDs used in SSL luminaires from KF and EKF based models have been compared with the TM-21 model predictions and experimental data.« less

Authors:
; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
RTI International
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Energy Efficiency Office. Building Technologies Office
OSTI Identifier:
1212870
Report Number(s):
PHM-2013
DOE Contract Number:  
EE0005124
Resource Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Conference: 2013 IEEE Conference on Prognostics and Health Management
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Lall, Pradeep, Wei, Junchao, and Davis, J Lynn. Prediction of Lumen Output and Chromaticity Shift in LEDs Using Kalman Filter and Extended Kalman Filter Based Models. United States: N. p., 2014. Web.
Lall, Pradeep, Wei, Junchao, & Davis, J Lynn. Prediction of Lumen Output and Chromaticity Shift in LEDs Using Kalman Filter and Extended Kalman Filter Based Models. United States.
Lall, Pradeep, Wei, Junchao, and Davis, J Lynn. 2014. "Prediction of Lumen Output and Chromaticity Shift in LEDs Using Kalman Filter and Extended Kalman Filter Based Models". United States. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1212870.
@article{osti_1212870,
title = {Prediction of Lumen Output and Chromaticity Shift in LEDs Using Kalman Filter and Extended Kalman Filter Based Models},
author = {Lall, Pradeep and Wei, Junchao and Davis, J Lynn},
abstractNote = {Abstract— Solid-state lighting (SSL) luminaires containing light emitting diodes (LEDs) have the potential of seeing excessive temperatures when being transported across country or being stored in non-climate controlled warehouses. They are also being used in outdoor applications in desert environments that see little or no humidity but will experience extremely high temperatures during the day. This makes it important to increase our understanding of what effects high temperature exposure for a prolonged period of time will have on the usability and survivability of these devices. Traditional light sources “burn out” at end-of-life. For an incandescent bulb, the lamp life is defined by B50 life. However, the LEDs have no filament to “burn”. The LEDs continually degrade and the light output decreases eventually below useful levels causing failure. Presently, the TM-21 test standard is used to predict the L70 life of LEDs from LM-80 test data. Several failure mechanisms may be active in a LED at a single time causing lumen depreciation. The underlying TM-21 Model may not capture the failure physics in presence of multiple failure mechanisms. Correlation of lumen maintenance with underlying physics of degradation at system-level is needed. In this paper, Kalman Filter (KF) and Extended Kalman Filters (EKF) have been used to develop a 70-percent Lumen Maintenance Life Prediction Model for LEDs used in SSL luminaires. Ten-thousand hour LM-80 test data for various LEDs have been used for model development. System state at each future time has been computed based on the state space at preceding time step, system dynamics matrix, control vector, control matrix, measurement matrix, measured vector, process noise and measurement noise. The future state of the lumen depreciation has been estimated based on a second order Kalman Filter model and a Bayesian Framework. Life prediction of L70 life for the LEDs used in SSL luminaires from KF and EKF based models have been compared with the TM-21 model predictions and experimental data.},
doi = {},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1212870}, journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {Tue Jun 24 00:00:00 EDT 2014},
month = {Tue Jun 24 00:00:00 EDT 2014}
}

Conference:
Other availability
Please see Document Availability for additional information on obtaining the full-text document. Library patrons may search WorldCat to identify libraries that hold this conference proceeding.

Save / Share: