MODELING THE DEMAND FOR E85 IN THE UNITED STATES

Technical Report · Tue Oct 01 00:00:00 EDT 2013

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/1098191· OSTI ID:1098191

Liu, Changzheng ^[1]; Greene, David L ^[1]

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1. ORNL

How demand for E85 might evolve in the future in response to changing economics and policies is an important subject to include in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). This report summarizes a study to develop an E85 choice model for NEMS. Using the most recent data from the states of Minnesota, North Dakota, and Iowa, this study estimates a logit model that represents E85 choice as a function of prices of E10 and E85, as well as fuel availability of E85 relative to gasoline. Using more recent data than previous studies allows a better estimation of non-fleet demand and indicates that the price elasticity of E85 choice appears to be higher than previously estimated. Based on the results of the econometric analysis, a model for projecting E85 demand at the regional level is specified. In testing, the model produced plausible predictions of US E85 demand to 2040.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)
• DOE Contract Number: DE-AC05-00OR22725
• OSTI ID: 1098191
• Report Number(s): ORNL/TM-2013/369; VT1301000; CEVT044
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English