Analysis of probabilistic short run marginal cost using Monte Carlo method
- Inst. Tecnologico de Morelia, Michoacan (Mexico). Dept. de Ing. Electrica y Electronica
- Inst. Politecnico Nacional (Mexico). Escuela Superior de Ingenieria Mecanica y Electrica
The structure of the Electricity Supply Industry is undergoing dramatic changes to provide new services options. The main aim of this restructuring is allowing generating units the freedom of selling electricity to anybody they wish at a price determined by market forces. Several methodologies have been proposed in order to quantify different costs associated with those new services offered by electrical utilities operating under a deregulated market. The new wave of pricing is heavily influenced by economic principles designed to price products to elastic market segments on the basis of marginal costs. Hence, spot pricing provides the economic structure for many of new services. At the same time, the pricing is influenced by uncertainties associated to the electric system state variables which defined its operating point. In this paper, nodal probabilistic short run marginal costs are calculated, considering as random variables the load, the production cost and availability of generators. The effect of the electrical network is evaluated taking into account linearized models. A thermal economic dispatch is used to simulate each operational condition generated by Monte Carlo method on small fictitious power system in order to assess the effect of the random variables on the energy trading. First, this is carry out by introducing each random variable one by one, and finally considering the random interaction of all of them.
- Research Organization:
- Illinois Inst. of Tech., Chicago, IL (United States)
- OSTI ID:
- 696755
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-990410-PROC.-Vol.2; TRN: IM9946%%140
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: 61. American power conference annual meeting, Chicago, IL (United States), 6-8 Apr 1999; Other Information: PBD: 1999; Related Information: Is Part Of Proceedings of the American power conference: Volume 61-2; McBride, A.E. [ed.]; PB: 485 p.
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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