Nuclear Winter: Implications for civil defense

Technical Report · Sun May 01 00:00:00 EDT 1988

DOI:https://doi.org/10.2172/6955170· OSTI ID:6955170

Chester, C. V.; Perry, A. M.; Hobbs, B. F.

''Nuclear Winter'' is the term given to the cooling hypothesized to occur in the Northern Hemisphere following a nuclear war as the result of the injection of smoke from burning cities into the atmosphere. The voluminous literature on this subject produced since the paper was published in 1983 by Turco, Toon, Ackerman, Pollack, and Sagen (TTAPS) has been reviewed. Three-dimensional global circulation models have resulted in reduced estimates of cooling---15 to 25/degree/C for a summer war and a few degrees for a winter war. More serious may be the possibility of suppression of convective precipitation by the altered temperature profiles in the atmosphere. However, very large uncertainties remain in input parameters, the models, and the results of calculations. We believe the state of knowledge about nuclear winter is sufficiently developed to conclude: Neither cold nor drought is likely to be a direct threat to human survival for populations with the wherewithal to survive normal January temperatures. The principal threat from nuclear winter is to food production, and this could present problems to third parties who are without food reserves. Loss of a crop year is neither a new nor an unexpected threat from nuclear war to the United States and the Soviet Union. Both have at least a year's food reserve at all times. Both face formidable organizational problems in distributing their reserves in a war-damaged environment. The consequences of nuclear winter could be expected to fall more heavily on the Soviet Union than the United States due to its higher latitude and less productive agriculture. This may be especially true if disturbances of rainfall amounts and distribution persist for more than a year.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-84OR21400
• OSTI ID: 6955170
• Report Number(s): ORNL-6399; ON: DE88013329
• Resource Relation: Other Information: Portions of this document are illegible in microfiche products
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEFENSE
NUCLEAR WEAPONS
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
NUCLEAR WINTER
AMBIENT TEMPERATURE
CIVIL DEFENSE
CLIMATES
HUMAN POPULATIONS
NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS
EXPLOSIONS
NATIONAL DEFENSE
POPULATIONS
WEAPONS
450202* - Explosions & Explosives- Nuclear- Weaponry- (-1989)