Simulating responses to expected climate change in eastern North America: applications to decision-making in the forest industry
The effects of rising CO/sub 2/ on climate are debatable. However, even if the climate change projections from general circulation models of the atmosphere are proven correct, responses by forests on specific small tracts of land are not intuitively obvious. Standard regression techniques may be misleading or invalid for predictions of future structural or compositional responses; the ecological systems are simply too complex, and combinations of future climatic variables are too different from those of today. Instead, the problem may be soluble with a modeling approach that can be based upon documented differences in response by individual tree species to separate and combined environmental variables. We present one such approach that has been under development for several years at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and elsewhere. We show how the individual natural histories of tree species (warmth and moisture requirements, shade and root-competition tolerance, regeneration and mortality characteristics) can be interfaced with intra-annual variations and shifting long-term means in climate variables. The resulting model can project long-term forest ecosystem behavior under expected future conditions that may be quite different from those found on the modern landscape. We then illustrate use of the model by applying it to land transaction decisions in which long-term considerations are required. 72 references, 5 figures, 1 table.
- Research Organization:
- Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (USA)
- DOE Contract Number:
- AC05-84OR21400
- OSTI ID:
- 6502273
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-8406209-1; ON: DE85001272
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: EPA/SAF/NFPA conservation foundation workshop on effects of CO/sub 2/ increases on the forest industry, Boulder, CO, USA, 25 Jun 1984; Other Information: Portions are illegible in microfiche products. Environmental Sciences Division Publication No. 2398
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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CARBON DIOXIDE
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
FORESTS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
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PLANT GROWTH
CLIMATES
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510100* - Environment
Terrestrial- Basic Studies- (-1989)
500200 - Environment
Atmospheric- Chemicals Monitoring & Transport- (-1989)