Structure and predictability of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon in a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model

Journal Article · Thu Apr 01 00:00:00 EST 1993 · Journal of Climate; (United States)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006<0700:SAPOTE>2.0.CO;2· OSTI ID:6383485

Latif, M; Sterl, A; Maier-Reimer, E; Junge, M M ^[1]

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1. Max Planck Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany)

The space-time structure and predictability of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon was investigated. Two comprehensive datasets were analyzed by means of an advanced statistical method, one based on observational data and other on data derived from an extended-range integration performed with a coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation model. It is shown that a considerable portion of the ENSO related low-frequency climate variability in both datasets is associated with a cycle implies the possibility of climate predictions in the tropics up to lead times of about one year. This is shown by conducting an ensemble of predictions with our coupled general circulation model. For the first time a coupled model of this type was successfully applied to ENSO predictions. 34 refs., 6 figs.

• OSTI ID: 6383485
• Journal Information: Journal of Climate; (United States), Vol. 6:4; ISSN 0894-8755
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
SOUTHERN OSCILLATION
FORECASTING
ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION
GENERAL CIRCULATION MODELS
OCEANIC CIRCULATION
SPACE-TIME
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
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