The relationship between energy intensity and income levels: Forecasting long term energy demand in Asian emerging countries
- Birkbeck Coll., London (United Kingdom) Univ. della Svizzera Italiana, Lugano (Switzerland). Facolta di Scienze Economiche
This paper analyzes long-term trends in energy intensity for ten Asian emerging countries to test for a non-monotonic relationship between energy intensity and income in the author's sample. Energy demand functions are estimated during 1973--1990 using a quadratic function of log income. The long-run coefficient on squared income is found to be negative and significant, indicating a change in trend of energy intensity. The estimates are then used to evaluate a medium-term forecast of energy demand in the Asian countries, using both a log-linear and a quadratic model. It is found that in medium to high income countries the quadratic model performs better than the log-linear, with an average error of 9% against 43% in 1995. For the region as a whole, the quadratic model appears more adequate with a forecast error of 16% against 28% in 1995. These results are consistent with a process of dematerialization, which occurs as a result of a reduction of resource use per unit of GDP once an economy passes some threshold level of GDP per capita.
- OSTI ID:
- 6184487
- Journal Information:
- Energy Journal, Vol. 19:4; ISSN 0195-6574
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
Measuring Income and Projecting Energy Use
What Factors Drive the Changes in Water Withdrawals in the U.S. Agriculture and Food Manufacturing Industries between 1995 and 2010?