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Title: Forecasting for energy and chemical decision analysis

This paper focuses on uncertainty and bias in forecasts used for major energy and chemical investment decisions. Probability methods for characterizing uncertainty in the forecast are reviewed. Sources of forecasting bias are classified based on the results of relevant psychology research. Examples are drawn from the energy and chemical industry to illustrate the value of explicit characterization of uncertainty and reduction of bias in forecasts.
Authors:
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
5765574
Report Number(s):
CONF-840828-
Journal ID: CODEN: ACENC
Resource Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: AIChE Natl. Meet.; (United States); Journal Volume: 49D; Conference: International synfuels policies and technologies symposium, Philadelphia, PA, USA, 19 Aug 1984
Research Org:
Decision Focus Inc., Los Altos, CA
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
02 PETROLEUM; 03 NATURAL GAS; CHEMICAL INDUSTRY; DECISION MAKING; INVESTMENT; MARKET; FORECASTING; NATURAL GAS; NATURAL GAS INDUSTRY; PETROCHEMICALS; PETROLEUM; PETROLEUM INDUSTRY; ECONOMIC ANALYSIS; PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION; SUPPLY AND DEMAND; ECONOMICS; ENERGY SOURCES; FLUIDS; FOSSIL FUELS; FUEL GAS; FUELS; GAS FUELS; GASES; INDUSTRY; PETROLEUM PRODUCTS 020700* -- Petroleum-- Economics, Industrial, & Business Aspects; 030600 -- Natural Gas-- Economic, Industrial, & Business Aspects