Sudden sea-level change from melting Antarctic ice: How likely?
- Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States)
There has been concern that the West Antarctic marine ice sheet could collapse catastrophically, leading to a 5-meter rise in sea level in a single century. However, that idea was based on a modeled instability at the grounding line that reflected a discontinuity between the mathematical models used for the grounded and floating parts of the ice sheet, respectively. Improved knowledge about ice streams, the active portions of the marine ice sheet, reveals that in the Ross Sea sector, at least, there is in reality a broad, gradual transition zone, rather than a discontinuity, between the inland ice and the ice shelf. Consequently, there probably is no instability; total disappearance of the ice sheet would take a millenium or more. The resulting average contribution to sea-level rise thus would be only a few millimeters per year, comparable to the present rate of rise (from all sources). Furthermore, dynamic response to present-day climate change would not even begin in less than a century. It is still uncertain whether the Antarctic ice sheet is making a positive or negative contribution to sea-level rise now. Whichever the case, however, during the next century or two the effect of climatic warming almost surely will be to increase the mass input to the ice sheet, thus yielding a negative contribution to sea-level rise of the order of a millimeter per year.
- OSTI ID:
- 549160
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-950264-; TRN: 95:006094-0029
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) annual meeting and science innovation exposition, Atlanta, GA (United States), 16-21 Feb 1995; Other Information: PBD: 1995; Related Information: Is Part Of 1995 AAAS annual meeting and science innovation exposition: Unity in diversity; Strauss, M.S. [ed.]; Heasley, C.; PB: 337 p.
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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