Damage-expectancy uncertainties for deeply buried targets. Technical report 1 Jan-10 Jul 89

Technical Report · Mon Jul 01 00:00:00 EDT 1991

OSTI ID:5330163

Wright, S C

This targeting uncertainties methodology quantifies the effect of systematic errors on the targeting prediction measure damage expectancy. The methodology, developed specifically to support the SEPW Phase 2 Study, evaluates and ranks the effect of uncertainties for applications involving a single buried target and a single earth penetrating weapon. This methodology models the penetration of the EPW, the ground shock environment, and the probability of damage to the underground target. Potential error sources treated in the methodology are impact velocity, geology, depth of burst, target hardness, ground shock prediction model, ground shock depth-to-effect, weapon aiming accuracy, distance damage prediction model, and target depth, location and size. The methodology makes minimal use of assumed distributions and Monte Carlo techniques; instead it uses three points to describe the inherent dispersion for all but one error source. The values are sorted and used to define a distribution for DE. In addition, and analysis of variance technique is used to calculate the relative contributions of each error source to the uncertainty in DE. The added benefit of ranking the error sources in terms of their contribution to the uncertainty in DE can provide insight into deeply buried targeting problems.

• Research Organization: Science Applications International Corp., Alexandria, VA (United States)
• OSTI ID: 5330163
• Report Number(s): AD-A-237351/2/XAB; CNN: DNA001-86-C-0024
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEFENSE
NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS
YIELDS
UNDERGROUND FACILITIES
DAMAGE
ACCURACY
DEPTH
DISTANCE
EARTH PENETRATORS
ERRORS
GEOLOGY
HARDNESS
IMPACT SHOCK
MONTE CARLO METHOD
NUCLEAR WEAPONS
PROBABILITY
TARGETS
VELOCITY
DIMENSIONS
EXPLOSIONS
MECHANICAL PROPERTIES
PENETRATORS
WEAPONS
450200* - Military Technology
Weaponry
& National Defense- Nuclear Explosions & Explosives