Expanded use of fossil fuels by the US and the global carbon dioxide problem

Journal Article · Tue Jan 01 00:00:00 EST 1980 · J. Environ. Manage.; (United States)

OSTI ID:5310059

Emanuel, W R; Olson, J S; Gillough, G G

Projecting present increases in rates of fossil fuel utilization, a doubling of CO/sub 2/ concentration in the atmosphere may be expected within the next 75 years. Based on preliminary calculations, coal utilization by the United States to the year 2020 accounts for between 9 and 15% of the increase in CO/sub 2/ concentration. Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere absorbs infra-red radiation, causing an increase in the surface temperature of the earth. The most recent climatic models indicate that each doubling in atmospheric CO/sub 2/ concentration will result in a temperature increase of approximately 3 +- 1/sup 0/C, depending on the model used. Changes in average rates of precipitation and evaporation may follow, leading to higher probabilities of drought in the mid-latitudes (including the United States). Manabe and Wetherald (1975) have estimated the temperature increase at high latitudes to be three times the increase in the global average surface temperature. Large-scale melting of the polar ice caps and a subsequent increase in the surface area of the oceans may follow on a timetable that is not yet clear. The distribution of vegetation and agricultural activities can be expected to change in response to the temperature increase and associated changes in precipitation and evaporation. The many uncertainties associated with the analysis of the carbon dioxide/climate problem mandate the initiation of an immediate global-scale interdisciplinary research effort to determine more clearly the components and connections of the problem and to develop strategies for reducing the impacts, i.e., contingency plans that could be helpful regardless of impact details which remain to be determined.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Lab., TN
• DOE Contract Number: W-7405-ENG-26
• OSTI ID: 5310059
• Journal Information: J. Environ. Manage.; (United States), Vol. 10
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT
CARBON DIOXIDE
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS
GREENHOUSE EFFECT
BIOLOGICAL EFFECTS
CARBON CYCLE
CLIMATES
COAL
DATA COMPILATION
DISTRIBUTION
ECOLOGICAL CONCENTRATION
FOSSIL-FUEL POWER PLANTS
GLOBAL ASPECTS
GRAPHS
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
PLANTS
TABLES
TEMPERATURE EFFECTS
USA
CARBON COMPOUNDS
CARBON OXIDES
CARBONACEOUS MATERIALS
CHALCOGENIDES
DATA
DATA FORMS
ENERGY SOURCES
FOSSIL FUELS
FUELS
INFORMATION
NORTH AMERICA
NUMERICAL DATA
OXIDES
OXYGEN COMPOUNDS
POWER PLANTS
THERMAL POWER PLANTS
500100* - Environment
Atmospheric- Basic Studies- (-1989)
010900 - Coal
Lignite
& Peat- Environmental Aspects