The formulation and implementation of a stochastic model that explores HIV infection. (Volumes I and II). [HIV (human immunodeficiency virus)]
This thesis presents the research, formulation, implementation and results of a stochastic model that projects HIV prevalence and crude demographic statistics. The background research includes demographic and epidemiological modeling issues. Published models and results are presented and discussed. The formulation of this model included demographic considerations. To model couple formations, a formulation of age-dependent couple formation was developed. Using the couple formation formulation, a two-sex model was developed to project population births. The epidemiological model addressed population types that were classified by HIV risk group, HIV state and age for both non-married populations and coupled populations. Males and females were partitioned into three risk groups each. The effects of heterogeneity caused by the behavior of diverse risk groups is discussed. Six states of HIV were modeled: susceptible (non-infected), initial infection, dormancy, AIDS Related Complex (ARC), full-blown AIDS and death due to AIDS. Male and female ages were considered in simulations that used age aggregation and in simulations that accounted for yearly ages. The projection of the spread of HIV was modeled on a monthly time scale. The projection of demographic statistics were modeled on a yearly time scale. The underlying stochastic model, with nonlinear different equations, are presented. Simulation models were run to consider the sensitivity of various parameters. The model results are shown, with a discussion of parameters used in previously published HIV model projections. The structure of the software developed to implement the model is presented. A cross-reference is provided to indicate software parameters that correspond with the formal model parameters. Another cross-reference provides the name of the APL function used to implement the calculations in the model formulation. The APL source code listing is included in the Appendix.
- Research Organization:
- Drexel Univ., Philadelphia, PA (United States)
- OSTI ID:
- 5146713
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: Thesis (Ph.D.)
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE
AIDS
DEMOGRAPHY
EPIDEMIOLOGY
STATISTICAL MODELS
AIDS VIRUS
INFECTIVITY
COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION
DISEASE INCIDENCE
STOCHASTIC PROCESSES
DISEASES
IMMUNE SYSTEM DISEASES
INFECTIOUS DISEASES
MATHEMATICAL MODELS
MICROORGANISMS
PARASITES
SIMULATION
VIRAL DISEASES
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