Risk control and the minimum significant risk
- IT Corp., Albuquerque, NM (United States)
- Auxier & Associates, Parker, CO (United States)
Risk management implies that the risk manager can, by his actions, exercise at least a modicum of control over the risk in question. In the terminology of control theory, a management action is a control signal imposed as feedback on the system to bring about a desired change in the state of the system. In the terminology of risk management, an action is taken to bring a predicted risk to lower values. Even if it is assumed that the management action taken is 100% effective and that the projected risk reduction is infinitely well known, there is a lower limit to the desired effects that can be achieved. It is based on the fact that all risks, such as the incidence of cancer, exhibit a degree of variability due to a number of extraneous factors such as age at exposure, sex, location, and some lifestyle parameters such as smoking or the consumption of alcohol. If the control signal is much smaller than the variability of the risk, the signal is lost in the noise and control is lost. This defines a minimum controllable risk based on the variability of the risk over the population considered. This quantity is the counterpart of the minimum significant risk which is defined by the uncertainties of the risk model. Both the minimum controllable risk and the minimum significant risk are evaluated for radiation carcinogenesis and are shown to be of the same order of magnitude. For a realistic management action, the assumptions of perfectly effective action and perfect model prediction made above have to be dropped, resulting in an effective minimum controllable risk which is determined by both risk limits. Any action below that effective limit is futile, but it is also unethical due to the ethical requirement of doing more good than harm. Finally, some implications of the effective minimum controllable risk on the use of the ALARA principle and on the evaluation of remedial action goals are presented.
- OSTI ID:
- 393926
- Report Number(s):
- CONF-9607135-; ISSN 0017-9078; TRN: 96:028607
- Journal Information:
- Health Physics, Vol. 70, Issue Suppl.6; Conference: 41. Annual Meeting of the Health Physics Society, Seattle, WA (United States), 21-25 Jul 1996; Other Information: PBD: Jun 1996
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
Use of risk-based decision making in non-remediation settings
Some problems of risk balancing for regulating environmental hazards