Potential environmental impacts of future halocarbon emissions
- Johns Hopkins Univ., Baltimore, MD (United States)
An integrated analysis of future halocarbon emissions and their environmental impacts shows that strict global compliance is required if the Montreal Protocol is to accomplish the goal of eliminating the lower stratospheric ozone hole. This analysis is integrated in the sense that demographic, economic, and regulatory processes controlling future production were linked explicitly to the technological factors translating production into emissions and the environmental processes transforming emissions into environmental impacts. Given current models of halocarbon transformation and atmospheric response, this research suggests that if a small percentage of nations continues to expand production at modest rates, the ozone hole will not be eliminated. In addition, high growth rate assumptions for halocarbon production by noncompliance nations will result in significantly increased ozone depletion. This research also shows that the continued use of small amounts of ozone-depleting substances for essential uses and the failure to adequately replace all ozone-depleting substances can eliminate the possibility of returning the atmosphere to pre-ozone hole conditions. The global climate change potential of halocarbons is fairly small if growth rates for chlorofluorocarbon substitutes remain low. If growth rates return to precontrol levels, these substitutes could contribute significantly to global climate change. 41 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs.
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- OSTI ID:
- 380790
- Journal Information:
- Environmental Science and Technology, Vol. 30, Issue 8; Other Information: PBD: Aug 1996
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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