Implication of climate warming for agricultural production in eastern China
- Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science, Beijing (China)
According to the regional climate change scenarios for China estimated by the composite GCM, the potential impacts of climate warming on rice, winter wheat and corn production in eastern agricultural areas and cropping systems in China in future are simulated in this paper, using the weather-yield model and cropping system model. As a result, it is shown that under the current planting systems and agrotechniques the climate warming effect upon the corn production is the most significant, impact upon the winter wheat is the next one and the smallest one is that upon the rice. The regional and seasonal features of impacts on various crops are rather different. And also, there will be a substantial northward shift of the cropping patterns, such as the northern boundary of triple cropping area would shift from its current border at Yangtze River toward Yellow River. However, it is still difficult to draw a specific conclusion that climate warming will be advantageous or disadvantageous for farm in China, because of significant negative balance between precipitation and evapotranspiration increase and a lot of scientific uncertainties in the investigation of climate warming, GCM prediction and complex-various impact of climate warming on agricultural production.
- OSTI ID:
- 234035
- Journal Information:
- World Resource Review, Vol. 8, Issue 1; Other Information: PBD: Mar 1996
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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