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Title: PROPAGATION OF THE 2014 JANUARY 7 CME AND RESULTING GEOMAGNETIC NON-EVENT

On 2014 January 7 an X1.2 flare and coronal mass ejection (CME) with a radial speed ≈2500 km s{sup −1} was observed from near an active region close to disk center. This led many forecasters to estimate a rapid arrival at Earth (≈36 hr) and predict a strong geomagnetic storm. However, only a glancing CME arrival was observed at Earth with a transit time of ≈49 hr and a K{sub P} geomagnetic index of only 3−. We study the interplanetary propagation of this CME using the ensemble Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)–ENLIL+Cone model, that allows a sampling of CME parameter uncertainties. We explore a series of simulations to isolate the effects of the background solar wind solution, CME shape, tilt, location, size, and speed, and the results are compared with observed in situ arrivals at Venus, Earth, and Mars. Our results show that a tilted ellipsoid CME shape improves the initial real-time prediction to better reflect the observed in situ signatures and the geomagnetic storm strength. CME parameters from the Graduated Cylindrical Shell model used as input to WSA–ENLIL+Cone, along with a tilted ellipsoid cloud shape, improve the arrival-time error by 14.5, 18.7, 23.4 hr for Venus, Earth, and Mars respectively. These resultsmore » highlight that CME orientation and directionality with respect to observatories play an important role in understanding the propagation of this CME, and for forecasting other glancing CME arrivals. This study also demonstrates the importance of three-dimensional CME fitting made possible by multiple viewpoint imaging.« less
Authors:
; ;  [1] ; ; ; ; ;  [2] ;  [3] ;  [4] ;  [5] ;  [6]
  1. Catholic University of America, Washington, DC (United States)
  2. Heliophysics Science Division, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD (United States)
  3. Space Science Division, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington, DC (United States)
  4. IGAM-Kanzelhöhe Observatory, Institute of Physics, University of Graz, Graz (Austria)
  5. George Mason University, Fairfax, VA (United States)
  6. Space Research Institute, Austrian Academy of Sciences, Graz (Austria)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
22518755
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Astrophysical Journal; Journal Volume: 812; Journal Issue: 2; Other Information: Country of input: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
79 ASTROPHYSICS, COSMOLOGY AND ASTRONOMY; COMPARATIVE EVALUATIONS; COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION; MAGNETIC STORMS; MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMICS; MARS PLANET; MASS; SOLAR CORONA; SOLAR FLARES; SOLAR WIND; SUN; VENUS PLANET