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Title: Demand forecasting for automotive sector in Malaysia by system dynamics approach

In general, Proton as an automotive company needs to forecast future demand of the car to assist in decision making related to capacity expansion planning. One of the forecasting approaches that based on judgemental or subjective factors is normally used to forecast the demand. As a result, demand could be overstock that eventually will increase the operation cost; or the company will face understock, which resulted losing their customers. Due to automotive industry is very challenging process because of high level of complexity and uncertainty involved in the system, an accurate tool to forecast the future of automotive demand from the modelling perspective is required. Hence, the main objective of this paper is to forecast the demand of automotive Proton car industry in Malaysia using system dynamics approach. Two types of intervention namely optimistic and pessimistic experiments scenarios have been tested to determine the capacity expansion that can prevent the company from overstocking. Finding from this study highlighted that the management needs to expand their production for optimistic scenario, whilst pessimistic give results that would otherwise. Finally, this study could help Proton Edar Sdn. Bhd (PESB) to manage the long-term capacity planning in order to meet the future demand ofmore » the Proton cars.« less
Authors:
;  [1] ;  [2]
  1. School of Quantitative Sciences, Universiti Utara Malaysia, Sintok, Kedah (Malaysia)
  2. SWM Environment Sdn. Bhd.Level 17, Menara LGB, Taman Tun Dr. Ismail Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
22494302
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: AIP Conference Proceedings; Journal Volume: 1691; Journal Issue: 1; Conference: IACE 2015: 2. innovation and analytics conference and exhibition, Kedah (Malaysia), 29 Sep - 1 Oct 2015; Other Information: (c) 2015 AIP Publishing LLC; Country of input: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY; 71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSICS; AUTOMOBILES; AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY; CAPACITY; DECISION MAKING; DEMAND; FORECASTING; MALAYSIA; PLANNING; SIMULATION