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Title: Forecasting of municipal solid waste quantity in a developing country using multivariate grey models

Highlights: • Grey model can be used to forecast MSW quantity accurately with the limited data. • Prediction interval overcomes the uncertainty of MSW forecast effectively. • A multivariate model gives accuracy associated with factors affecting MSW quantity. • Population, urbanization, employment and household size play role for MSW quantity. - Abstract: In order to plan, manage and use municipal solid waste (MSW) in a sustainable way, accurate forecasting of MSW generation and composition plays a key role. It is difficult to carry out the reliable estimates using the existing models due to the limited data available in the developing countries. This study aims to forecast MSW collected in Thailand with prediction interval in long term period by using the optimized multivariate grey model which is the mathematical approach. For multivariate models, the representative factors of residential and commercial sectors affecting waste collected are identified, classified and quantified based on statistics and mathematics of grey system theory. Results show that GMC (1, 5), the grey model with convolution integral, is the most accurate with the least error of 1.16% MAPE. MSW collected would increase 1.40% per year from 43,435–44,994 tonnes per day in 2013 to 55,177–56,735 tonnes per day inmore » 2030. This model also illustrates that population density is the most important factor affecting MSW collected, followed by urbanization, proportion employment and household size, respectively. These mean that the representative factors of commercial sector may affect more MSW collected than that of residential sector. Results can help decision makers to develop the measures and policies of waste management in long term period.« less
Authors:
 [1] ;  [1] ;  [1] ;  [2]
  1. Energy Field of Study, School of Environment, Resources and Development, Asian Institute of Technology, P.O. Box 4, KlongLuang, Pathumthani 12120 (Thailand)
  2. School of Tourism Development, Maejo University, Chiangmai (Thailand)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
22470233
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Waste Management; Journal Volume: 39; Other Information: Copyright (c) 2015 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam, The Netherlands, All rights reserved.; Country of input: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE WASTES, AND NON-RADIOACTIVE WASTES FROM NUCLEAR FACILITIES; ACCURACY; EMPLOYMENT; ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY; ERRORS; HOUSEHOLDS; MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS; POPULATION DENSITY; RESIDENTIAL SECTOR; SOLID WASTES; THAILAND; WASTE MANAGEMENT