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Title: Nomograms for Prediction of Outcome With or Without Adjuvant Radiation Therapy for Patients With Endometrial Cancer: A Pooled Analysis of PORTEC-1 and PORTEC-2 Trials

Background: Postoperative radiation therapy for stage I endometrial cancer improves locoregional control but is without survival benefit. To facilitate treatment decision support for individual patients, accurate statistical models to predict locoregional relapse (LRR), distant relapse (DR), overall survival (OS), and disease-free survival (DFS) are required. Methods and Materials: Clinical trial data from the randomized Post Operative Radiation Therapy for Endometrial Cancer (PORTEC-1; N=714 patients) and PORTEC-2 (N=427 patients) trials and registered group (grade 3 and deep invasion, n=99) were pooled for analysis (N=1240). For most patients (86%) pathology review data were available; otherwise original pathology data were used. Trial variables which were clinically relevant and eligible according to data constraints were age, stage, given treatment (pelvic external beam radiation therapy (EBRT), vaginal brachytherapy (VBT), or no adjuvant treatment, FIGO histological grade, depth of invasion, and lymph-vascular invasion (LVSI). Multivariate analyses were based on Cox proportional hazards regression model. Predictors were selected based on a backward elimination scheme. Model results were expressed by the c-index (0.5-1.0; random to perfect prediction). Two validation sets (n=244 and 291 patients) were used. Results: Accuracy of the developed models was good, with training accuracies between 0.71 and 0.78. The nomograms validated well for DR (0.73),more » DFS (0.69), and OS (0.70), but validation was only fair for LRR (0.59). Ranking of variables as to their predictive power showed that age, tumor grade, and LVSI were highly predictive for all outcomes, and given treatment for LRR and DFS. The nomograms were able to significantly distinguish low- from high-probability patients for these outcomes. Conclusions: The nomograms are internally validated and able to accurately predict long-term outcome for endometrial cancer patients with observation, pelvic EBRT, or VBT after surgery. These models facilitate decision support in daily clinical practice and can be used for patient counseling and shared decision making, selecting patients who benefit most from adjuvant treatment, and generating new hypotheses.« less
Authors:
 [1] ;  [2] ;  [1] ;  [2] ;  [3] ;  [4] ;  [5] ;  [2]
  1. Department of Clinical Oncology, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden (Netherlands)
  2. Department of Radiation Oncology, MAASTRO, GROW, University Medical Centre Maastricht, Maastricht (Netherlands)
  3. Department of Radiation Oncology, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht (Netherlands)
  4. Department of Radiotherapy, Medisch Spectrum Twente, Enschede (Netherlands)
  5. Department of Pathology, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden (Netherlands)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
22458622
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: International Journal of Radiation Oncology, Biology and Physics; Journal Volume: 91; Journal Issue: 3; Other Information: Copyright (c) 2015 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam, The Netherlands, All rights reserved.; Country of input: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE; ACCURACY; BRACHYTHERAPY; CLINICAL TRIALS; DECISION MAKING; EXTERNAL BEAM RADIATION THERAPY; FORECASTING; HAZARDS; HYPOTHESIS; LIMITING VALUES; LYMPH; MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS; NEOPLASMS; NOMOGRAMS; PATHOLOGY; PATIENTS; REVIEWS; STATISTICAL MODELS; SURGERY; TRAINING; VALIDATION