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Title: Minima of the fluctuations of the order parameter of global seismicity

It has been recently shown [N. V. Sarlis, Phys. Rev. E 84, 022101 (2011) and N. V. Sarlis and S.-R. G. Christopoulos, Chaos 22, 023123 (2012)] that earthquakes of magnitude M greater or equal to 7 are globally correlated. Such correlations were identified by studying the variance κ{sub 1} of natural time which has been proposed as an order parameter for seismicity. Here, we study the fluctuations of this order parameter using the Global Centroid Moment Tensor catalog for a magnitude threshold M{sub thres} = 5.0 and focus on its behavior before major earthquakes. Natural time analysis reveals that distinct minima of the fluctuations of the order parameter of seismicity appear within almost five and a half months on average before all major earthquakes of magnitude larger than 8.4. This phenomenon corroborates the recent finding [N. V. Sarlis et al., Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 110, 13734 (2013)] that similar minima of the seismicity order parameter fluctuations had preceded all major shallow earthquakes in Japan. Moreover, on the basis of these minima a statistically significant binary prediction method for earthquakes of magnitude larger than 8.4 with hit rate 100% and false alarm rate 6.67% is suggested.
Authors:
; ;  [1]
  1. Department of Solid State Physics and Solid Earth Physics Institute, Faculty of Physics, School of Science, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Panepistimiopolis, Zografos 157 84, Athens (Greece)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
22402565
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Chaos (Woodbury, N. Y.); Journal Volume: 25; Journal Issue: 6; Other Information: (c) 2015 AIP Publishing LLC; Country of input: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSICS; CATALOGS; CHAOS THEORY; CORRELATIONS; EARTHQUAKES; FLUCTUATIONS; FORECASTING; JAPAN; ORDER PARAMETERS; SEISMICITY; STATISTICAL DATA; TENSOR FORCES