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Title: Recurrent dynamics in an epidemic model due to stimulated bifurcation crossovers

Epidemics are known to persist in the form of recurrence cycles. Despite intervention efforts through vaccination and targeted social distancing, peaks of activity for infectious diseases like influenza reappear over time. Analysis of a stochastic model is here undertaken to explore a proposed cycle-generating mechanism – the bifurcation crossover. Time series from simulations of the model exhibit oscillations similar to the temporal signature of influenza activity. Power-spectral density indicates a resonant frequency, which corresponds to the annual seasonality of influenza in temperate zones. The study finds that intervention actions influence the extinguishability of epidemic activity. Asymptotic solution to a backward Kolmogorov equation corresponds to a mean extinction time that is a function of both intervention efficacy and population size. Intervention efficacy must be greater than a certain threshold to increase the chances of extinguishing the epidemic. Agreement of the model with several phenomenological features of epidemic cycles lends to it a tractability that may serve as early warning of imminent outbreaks.
Authors:
 [1] ;  [2]
  1. Department of Mathematics, Ateneo de Manila University, Loyola Heights, Quezon City, Philippines 1108 (Philippines)
  2. (Philippines)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
22391653
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: AIP Conference Proceedings; Journal Volume: 1660; Journal Issue: 1; Conference: ICoMEIA 2014: International Conference on Mathematics, Engineering and Industrial Applications 2014, Penang (Malaysia), 28-30 May 2014; Other Information: (c) 2015 AIP Publishing LLC; Country of input: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSICS; 97 MATHEMATICAL METHODS AND COMPUTING; ASYMPTOTIC SOLUTIONS; BIFURCATION; CHAPMAN-KOLMOGOROV EQUATION; COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION; DISTANCE; FOKKER-PLANCK EQUATION; INFLUENZA; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; OSCILLATIONS; SPECTRAL DENSITY; STOCHASTIC PROCESSES