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Title: Seismic energy data analysis of Merapi volcano to test the eruption time prediction using materials failure forecast method (FFM)

The test of eruption time prediction is an effort to prepare volcanic disaster mitigation, especially in the volcano’s inhabited slope area, such as Merapi Volcano. The test can be conducted by observing the increase of volcanic activity, such as seismicity degree, deformation and SO2 gas emission. One of methods that can be used to predict the time of eruption is Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM). Materials Failure Forecast Method (FFM) is a predictive method to determine the time of volcanic eruption which was introduced by Voight (1988). This method requires an increase in the rate of change, or acceleration of the observed volcanic activity parameters. The parameter used in this study is the seismic energy value of Merapi Volcano from 1990 – 2012. The data was plotted in form of graphs of seismic energy rate inverse versus time with FFM graphical technique approach uses simple linear regression. The data quality control used to increase the time precision employs the data correlation coefficient value of the seismic energy rate inverse versus time. From the results of graph analysis, the precision of prediction time toward the real time of eruption vary between −2.86 up to 5.49 days.
Authors:
 [1]
  1. Geophysics Sub-department, Physics Department, Faculty of Mathematic and Natural Science, Universitas Gadjah Mada. BLS 21 Yogyakarta 55281 (Indonesia)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
22391596
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: AIP Conference Proceedings; Journal Volume: 1658; Journal Issue: 1; Conference: ISEDM 2014: 4. International Sympsoium on Earthquake and Disaster Mitigation 2014, Bandung (Indonesia), 11-12 Nov 2014; Other Information: (c) 2015 AIP Publishing LLC; Country of input: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
42 ENGINEERING; 71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSICS; ACCELERATION; ACCIDENTS; ACCURACY; CORRELATIONS; DATA ANALYSIS; DEFORMATION; DIAGRAMS; ERUPTION; FAILURES; GEOPHYSICS; GRAPH THEORY; MITIGATION; NATURAL DISASTERS; QUALITY CONTROL; SEISMICITY; SEISMOLOGY; SULFUR DIOXIDE; VOLCANOES