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Title: Monte Carlo simulation for slip rate sensitivity analysis in Cimandiri fault area

Slip rate is used to estimate earthquake recurrence relationship which is the most influence for hazard level. We examine slip rate contribution of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), in probabilistic seismic hazard maps (10% probability of exceedance in 50 years or 500 years return period). Hazard curve of PGA have been investigated for Sukabumi using a PSHA (Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis). We observe that the most influence in the hazard estimate is crustal fault. Monte Carlo approach has been developed to assess the sensitivity. Then, Monte Carlo simulations properties have been assessed. Uncertainty and coefficient of variation from slip rate for Cimandiri Fault area has been calculated. We observe that seismic hazard estimates is sensitive to fault slip rate with seismic hazard uncertainty result about 0.25 g. For specific site, we found seismic hazard estimate for Sukabumi is between 0.4904 – 0.8465 g with uncertainty between 0.0847 – 0.2389 g and COV between 17.7% – 29.8%.
Authors:
 [1] ;  [2] ;  [3]
  1. Graduate Program of Earth Science, Faculty of Earth Science and Technology, ITB, JalanGanesa no. 10, Bandung 40132 (Indonesia)
  2. Geodesy Research Division, Faculty of Earth Science and Technology, ITB, JalanGanesa no. 10, Bandung 40132 (Indonesia)
  3. Global Geophysical Group, Faculty of Mining and Petroleum Engineering, ITB, JalanGanesa no. 10, Bandung 40132 (Indonesia)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
22391590
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: AIP Conference Proceedings; Journal Volume: 1658; Journal Issue: 1; Conference: ISEDM 2014: 4. International Sympsoium on Earthquake and Disaster Mitigation 2014, Bandung (Indonesia), 11-12 Nov 2014; Other Information: (c) 2015 AIP Publishing LLC; Country of input: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSICS; ACCELERATION; COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION; DIAGRAMS; EARTHQUAKES; GEOPHYSICS; HAZARDS; MAPS; MONTE CARLO METHOD; PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION; PROBABILITY; SEISMICITY; SEISMOLOGY; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; SLIP; VARIATIONS