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Title: Estimation of stochastic volatility with long memory for index prices of FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI

In recent years, modeling in long memory properties or fractionally integrated processes in stochastic volatility has been applied in the financial time series. A time series with structural breaks can generate a strong persistence in the autocorrelation function, which is an observed behaviour of a long memory process. This paper considers the structural break of data in order to determine true long memory time series data. Unlike usual short memory models for log volatility, the fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process is neither a Markovian process nor can it be easily transformed into a Markovian process. This makes the likelihood evaluation and parameter estimation for the long memory stochastic volatility (LMSV) model challenging tasks. The drift and volatility parameters of the fractional Ornstein-Unlenbeck model are estimated separately using the least square estimator (lse) and quadratic generalized variations (qgv) method respectively. Finally, the empirical distribution of unobserved volatility is estimated using the particle filtering with sequential important sampling-resampling (SIR) method. The mean square error (MSE) between the estimated and empirical volatility indicates that the performance of the model towards the index prices of FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI is fairly well.
Authors:
; ;  [1] ;  [2] ;  [3]
  1. Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor Bahru (Malaysia)
  2. UTM Centre for Industrial and Applied Mathematics (UTM-CIAM), Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor Bahru and Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor Bahru (Malaysia)
  3. Center for Biomedical Engineering, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor Bahru (Malaysia)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
22390954
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: AIP Conference Proceedings; Journal Volume: 1643; Journal Issue: 1; Conference: 2. ISM International Statistical Conference 2014: Empowering the Applications of Statistical and Mathematical Sciences, Pahang (Malaysia), 12-14 Aug 2014; Other Information: (c) 2015 AIP Publishing LLC; Country of input: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
97 MATHEMATICAL METHODS AND COMPUTING; BEHAVIOR; COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION; ERRORS; EVALUATION; FILTERS; INDEXES; LEAST SQUARE FIT; MALAYSIA; MARKOV PROCESS; PERFORMANCE; PRICES; VARIATIONS; VOLATILITY