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Title: Stochastic generation of hourly rainstorm events in Johor

Engineers and researchers in water-related studies are often faced with the problem of having insufficient and long rainfall record. Practical and effective methods must be developed to generate unavailable data from limited available data. Therefore, this paper presents a Monte-Carlo based stochastic hourly rainfall generation model to complement the unavailable data. The Monte Carlo simulation used in this study is based on the best fit of storm characteristics. Hence, by using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and Anderson Darling goodness-of-fit test, lognormal appeared to be the best rainfall distribution. Therefore, the Monte Carlo simulation based on lognormal distribution was used in the study. The proposed model was verified by comparing the statistical moments of rainstorm characteristics from the combination of the observed rainstorm events under 10 years and simulated rainstorm events under 30 years of rainfall records with those under the entire 40 years of observed rainfall data based on the hourly rainfall data at the station J1 in Johor over the period of 1972–2011. The absolute percentage error of the duration-depth, duration-inter-event time and depth-inter-event time will be used as the accuracy test. The results showed the first four product-moments of the observed rainstorm characteristics were close with themore » simulated rainstorm characteristics. The proposed model can be used as a basis to derive rainfall intensity-duration frequency in Johor.« less
Authors:
;  [1] ;  [2]
  1. Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 UTM Johor Bahru, Johor (Malaysia)
  2. Institute of Environmental and Water Resources Management, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 UTM Johor Bahru, Johor (Malaysia)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
22390943
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: AIP Conference Proceedings; Journal Volume: 1643; Journal Issue: 1; Conference: 2. ISM International Statistical Conference 2014: Empowering the Applications of Statistical and Mathematical Sciences, Pahang (Malaysia), 12-14 Aug 2014; Other Information: (c) 2015 AIP Publishing LLC; Country of input: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSICS; ACCURACY; COMPARATIVE EVALUATIONS; COMPUTERIZED SIMULATION; ERRORS; MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD FIT; MONTE CARLO METHOD; STOCHASTIC PROCESSES; STORMS; WATER