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Title: Determining frequentist confidence limits using a directed parameter space search

We consider the problem of inferring constraints on a high-dimensional parameter space with a computationally expensive likelihood function. We propose a machine learning algorithm that maps out the Frequentist confidence limit on parameter space by intelligently targeting likelihood evaluations so as to quickly and accurately characterize the likelihood surface in both low- and high-likelihood regions. We compare our algorithm to Bayesian credible limits derived by the well-tested Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm using both multi-modal toy likelihood functions and the seven yr Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe cosmic microwave background likelihood function. We find that our algorithm correctly identifies the location, general size, and general shape of high-likelihood regions in parameter space while being more robust against multi-modality than MCMC.
Authors:
;  [1] ;  [2]
  1. Department of Astronomy, University of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
  2. Machine Learning Department, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA (United States)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
22370502
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Astrophysical Journal; Journal Volume: 794; Journal Issue: 1; Other Information: Country of input: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
79 ASTROPHYSICS, COSMOLOGY AND ASTRONOMY; ALGORITHMS; ANISOTROPY; COMPARATIVE EVALUATIONS; MAPS; MARKOV PROCESS; MONTE CARLO METHOD; RELICT RADIATION; SPACE; SURFACES