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Title: GLITCH OR ANTI-GLITCH: A BAYESIAN VIEW

The sudden spin-down in the rotation of magnetar 1E 2259+586 observed by Archibald et al. was a rare event. However, that particular event, referred to as an anti-glitch, was followed by another event, which Archibald et al. suggested could either be a conventional glitch or another anti-glitch. Although there is no accompanying radiation activity or pulse profile change, there is decisive evidence of the existence of a second timing event, judging from the timing data. We apply a Bayesian Model Selection to quantitatively determine which of these possibilities better explains the observed data. We show that the observed data strongly support the presence of two successive anti-glitches with a Bayes factor, often called the odds ratio, greater than 40. Furthermore, we show that the second anti-glitch has an associated frequency change Δν of –8.2 × 10{sup –8} Hz. We discuss the implications of these results for possible physical mechanisms behind this anti-glitch.
Authors:
; ; ;  [1]
  1. SUPA, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ (United Kingdom)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
22365921
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Astrophysical Journal Letters; Journal Volume: 784; Journal Issue: 2; Other Information: Country of input: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
79 ASTROPHYSICS, COSMOLOGY AND ASTRONOMY; DATA PROCESSING; ELECTROMAGNETIC PULSES; MAGNETIC STARS; PULSARS; ROTATION; SPIN