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Title: STOCHASTIC DESCRIPTION OF THE HIGH-FREQUENCY CONTENT OF DAILY SUNSPOTS AND EVIDENCE FOR REGIME CHANGES

The irregularity index λ is applied to the high-frequency content of daily sunspot numbers ISSN. This λ is a modification of the standard maximal Lyapunov exponent. It is computed here as a function of embedding dimension m, within four-year time windows centered at the maxima of Schwabe cycles. The λ(m) curves form separate clusters (pre-1923 and post-1933). This supports a regime transition and narrows its occurrence to cycle 16, preceding the growth of activity leading to the Modern Maximum. The two regimes are reproduced by a simple autoregressive process AR(1), with the mean of Poisson noise undergoing 11 yr modulation. The autocorrelation a of the process (linked to sunspot lifetime) is a ≈ 0.8 for 1850-1923 and ≈0.95 for 1933-2013. The AR(1) model suggests that groups of spots appear with a Poisson rate and disappear at a constant rate. We further applied the irregularity index to the daily sunspot group number series for the northern and southern hemispheres, provided by the Greenwich Royal Observatory (RGO), in order to study a possible desynchronization. Correlations between the north and south λ(m) curves vary quite strongly with time and indeed show desynchronization. This may reflect a slow change in the dimension of anmore » underlying dynamical system. The ISSN and RGO series of group numbers do not imply an identical mechanism, but both uncover a regime change at a similar time. Computation of the irregularity index near the maximum of cycle 24 will help in checking whether yet another regime change is under way.« less
Authors:
 [1] ; ;  [2] ;  [3]
  1. Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, Leningradsky pr. 49, Moscow (Russian Federation)
  2. Institute de Physique du Globe, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Paris (France)
  3. Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Profsoyuznaya 84/32, 117997 Moscow (Russian Federation)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
22364473
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Astrophysical Journal; Journal Volume: 799; Journal Issue: 1; Other Information: Country of input: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
79 ASTROPHYSICS, COSMOLOGY AND ASTRONOMY; CHAOS THEORY; CORRELATIONS; DIAGRAMS; INDEXES; LIFETIME; LYAPUNOV METHOD; MODULATION; NOISE; SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE; STAR EVOLUTION; STOCHASTIC PROCESSES; SUN; SUNSPOTS