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Title: A consistent orbital stability analysis for the GJ 581 system

We apply a combination of N-body modeling techniques and automated data fitting with Monte Carlo Markov Chain uncertainty analysis of Keplerian orbital models to RV data to determine long-term stability of the planetary system GJ 581. We find that while there are stability concerns with the four-planet model as published by Forveille et al., when uncertainties in the system are accounted for, particularly stellar jitter, the hypothesis that the four-planet model is gravitationally unstable is not statistically significant. Additionally, the system including proposed planet g by Vogt et al. also shows some stability concerns when eccentricities are allowed to float in the orbital fit, yet when uncertainties are included in the analysis, the system including planet g also cannot be proven to be unstable. We present revised reduced χ{sup 2} values for Keplerian astrocentric orbital fits assuming four-planet and five-planet models for GJ 581 under the condition that best fits must be stable, and we find no distinguishable difference by including planet g in the model. Additionally, we present revised orbital element estimates for each, assuming uncertainties due to stellar jitter under the constraint of the system being gravitationally stable.
Authors:
 [1] ; ;  [2] ;  [3] ;  [4]
  1. Center for Science, Technology, and Mathematics, Kean University, 1000 Morris Avenue, Union, NJ 07083 (United States)
  2. Department of Physics and Astronomy, San Jose State University, San Jose, CA 95192 (United States)
  3. Las Cumbres Observatory Global Telescope Network, 6740 Cortona Drive, Suite 102, Goleta, CA 93117 (United States)
  4. Department of Physics and Astronomy, San Francisco State University, 1600 Holloway Avenue, San Francisco, CA 94132 (United States)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
22356563
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Astrophysical Journal; Journal Volume: 788; Journal Issue: 2; Other Information: Country of input: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
79 ASTROPHYSICS, COSMOLOGY AND ASTRONOMY; EVOLUTION; HYPOTHESIS; LIMITING VALUES; MARKOV PROCESS; MONTE CARLO METHOD; PLANETS; RADIAL VELOCITY; SATELLITES; SIMULATION; STABILITY; STARS