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Title: The predictability of advection-dominated flux-transport solar dynamo models

Space weather is a matter of practical importance in our modern society. Predictions of forecoming solar cycles mean amplitude and duration are currently being made based on flux-transport numerical models of the solar dynamo. Interested in the forecast horizon of such studies, we quantify the predictability window of a representative, advection-dominated, flux-transport dynamo model by investigating its sensitivity to initial conditions and control parameters through a perturbation analysis. We measure the rate associated with the exponential growth of an initial perturbation of the model trajectory, which yields a characteristic timescale known as the e-folding time τ {sub e}. The e-folding time is shown to decrease with the strength of the α-effect, and to increase with the magnitude of the imposed meridional circulation. Comparing the e-folding time with the solar cycle periodicity, we obtain an average estimate for τ {sub e} equal to 2.76 solar cycle durations. From a practical point of view, the perturbations analyzed in this work can be interpreted as uncertainties affecting either the observations or the physical model itself. After reviewing these, we discuss their implications for solar cycle prediction.
Authors:
; ;  [1]
  1. Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Université Paris Diderot UMR 7154 CNRS, F-75005 Paris (France)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
22348200
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: Astrophysical Journal; Journal Volume: 781; Journal Issue: 1; Other Information: Country of input: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
79 ASTROPHYSICS, COSMOLOGY AND ASTRONOMY; ADVECTION; CHAOS THEORY; COMPARATIVE EVALUATIONS; DISTURBANCES; FORECASTING; PERIODICITY; PERTURBATION THEORY; SENSITIVITY; SOLAR CYCLE; SPACE; SUN; TRAJECTORIES