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Title: Risk assessment of turbine rotor failure using probabilistic ultrasonic non-destructive evaluations

The study presents a method and application of risk assessment methodology for turbine rotor fatigue failure using probabilistic ultrasonic nondestructive evaluations. A rigorous probabilistic modeling for ultrasonic flaw sizing is developed by incorporating the model-assisted probability of detection, and the probability density function (PDF) of the actual flaw size is derived. Two general scenarios, namely the ultrasonic inspection with an identified flaw indication and the ultrasonic inspection without flaw indication, are considered in the derivation. To perform estimations for fatigue reliability and remaining useful life, uncertainties from ultrasonic flaw sizing and fatigue model parameters are systematically included and quantified. The model parameter PDF is estimated using Bayesian parameter estimation and actual fatigue testing data. The overall method is demonstrated using a realistic application of steam turbine rotor, and the risk analysis under given safety criteria is provided to support maintenance planning.
Authors:
; ;  [1] ; ;  [2]
  1. Siemens Corporation, Corporate Technology, 755 College Rd. E., Princeton NJ 08540 (United States)
  2. Siemens Energy Inc., 841 Old Frankstown Road, Pittsburgh PA 15239 (United States)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
22263791
Resource Type:
Journal Article
Resource Relation:
Journal Name: AIP Conference Proceedings; Journal Volume: 1581; Journal Issue: 1; Conference: 40. annual review of progress in quantitative nondestructive evaluation, Baltimore, MD (United States), 21-26 Jul 2013, 10. international conference on Barkhausen noise and micromagnetic testing, Baltimore, MD (United States), 21-26 Jul 2013; Other Information: (c) 2014 AIP Publishing LLC; Country of input: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
42 ENGINEERING; 71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSICS; EVALUATION; FAILURES; FATIGUE; NONDESTRUCTIVE ANALYSIS; PROBABILISTIC ESTIMATION; PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTIONS; RISK ASSESSMENT; ROTORS; SIMULATION; STEAM TURBINES; TESTING