Using Fuzzy Logic as a Complement to Probabilistic Radioactive Waste Disposal Facilities Safety Assessment
- CNEN- National Nuclear Energy Commission (Brazil)
- BNL-Brookhaven National Laboratory (United States)
Probabilistic calculation assumes randomness in events and processes, i.e., it assumes that all the observations in a probability distribution have the same possibility of occurrence. The only difference from one event to another is their respective frequency. To avoid the situation that a very low probability event drives the decision making process, there must be a criterion for the predicted dose as a function of probability to be considered acceptable by regulatory authorities. For example, it can be required that the predicted dose at 2 standard deviations above the mean value for dose to be no more than three times the regulatory standard. This paper proposes the use of possibility analysis, as a complement to the probability analysis. In this approach two separate performance analyses, probabilistic and possibilistic, are performed and the results are used to complement each other. A case example is provided to illustrate the methodology. In conclusion: The probabilistic approach assumes independent and random events, which means the events are equally possible to occur. However, this is not always the case for empirical data. Traditionally, because of lack of adequate information, experts build the probabilistic distribution functions based on their professional experiences. In other words, there is no complete evidence for characterization of data and their assignment to a class. Consequently, the data may not be interpreted correctly. i.e., a high probable event may have a low degree of possibility, or vice versa. This paper suggests that the possibility analysis be used as a complement to probabilistic analysis. The degree of membership can be interpreted as a degree of compatibility, or assurance, of a particular data to the situation being studied. In this sense, a reasonable degree of compatibility, or membership, could be interpreted as reasonable assurance that the results are being correctly interpreted. (authors)
- Research Organization:
- WM Symposia, 1628 E. Southern Avenue, Suite 9 - 332, Tempe, AZ 85282 (United States)
- OSTI ID:
- 21326168
- Report Number(s):
- INIS-US-10-WM-08450; TRN: US10V0623067533
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: WM'08: Waste Management Symposium 2008 - HLW, TRU, LLW/ILW, Mixed, Hazardous Wastes and Environmental Management - Phoenix Rising: Moving Forward in Waste Management, Phoenix, AZ (United States), 24-28 Feb 2008; Other Information: Country of input: France; 7 refs
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
Hybrid Processing of Measurable and Subjective Data
Uncertainty quantification in the presence of limited climate model data with discontinuities.