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Title: Retrospection of Chernobyl nuclear accident for decision analysis concerning remedial actions in Ukraine

It is considered the efficacy of decisions concerning remedial actions when of-site radiological monitoring in the early and (or) in the intermediate phases was absent or was not informative. There are examples of such situations in the former Soviet Union where many people have been exposed: releases of radioactive materials from 'Krasnoyarsk-26' into Enisey River, releases of radioactive materials from 'Chelabinsk-65' (the Kishtim accident), nuclear tests at the Semipalatinsk Test Site, the Chernobyl nuclear accident etc. If monitoring in the early and (or) in the intermediate phases is absent the decisions concerning remedial actions are usually developed on the base of permanent monitoring. However decisions of this kind may be essentially erroneous. For these cases it is proposed to make retrospection of radiological data of the early and intermediate phases of nuclear accident and to project decisions concerning remedial actions on the base of both retrospective data and permanent monitoring data. In this Report the indicated problem is considered by the example of the Chernobyl accident for Ukraine. Their of-site radiological monitoring in the early and intermediate phases was unsatisfactory. In particular, the pasture-cow-milk monitoring had not been made. All official decisions concerning dose estimations had been made on themore » base of measurements of {sup 137}Cs in body (40 measurements in 135 days and 55 measurements in 229 days after the Chernobyl accident). For the retrospection of radiological data of the Chernobyl accident dynamic model has been developed. This model has structure similar to the structure of Pathway model and Farmland model. Parameters of the developed model have been identified for agricultural conditions of Russia and Ukraine. By means of this model dynamics of 20 radionuclides in pathways and dynamics of doses have been estimated for the early, intermediate and late phases of the Chernobyl accident. The main results are following: - During the first year after the Chernobyl accident 75-93% of Commitment Effective Dose had been formed; - During the first year after the Chernobyl accident 85-90% of damage from radiation exposure had been formed. During the next 50 years (the late phase of accident) only 10-15% of damage from radiation exposure will have been formed; - Remedial actions (agricultural remedial actions as most effective) in Ukraine are intended for reduction of the damage from consumption of production which is contaminated in the late phase of accident. I.e. agricultural remedial actions have been intended for minimization only 10 % of the total damage from radiation exposure; - Medical countermeasures can minimize radiation exposure damage by an order of magnitude greater than agricultural countermeasures. - Thus, retrospection of nuclear accident has essentially changed type of remedial actions and has given a chance to increase effectiveness of spending by an order of magnitude. This example illustrates that in order to optimize remedial actions it is required to use data of retrospection of nuclear accidents in all cases when monitoring in the early and (or) intermediate phases is unsatisfactory. (author)« less
Authors:
 [1]
  1. Russian Research Center 'Kurchatov Insitute', Kurchatov Sq., 1, 123182 Moscow (Russian Federation)
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
21156452
Resource Type:
Conference
Resource Relation:
Conference: ICEM'07: 11. International Conference on Environmental Remediation and Radioactive Waste Management, Bruges (Belgium), 2-6 Sep 2007; Other Information: Country of input: France; 9 refs.; Proceedings may be ordered from ASME Order Department, 22 Law Drive, P.O. Box 2300, Fairfield, NJ 07007-2300 (United States)
Publisher:
American Society of Mechanical Engineers - ASME, New York (United States)
Research Org:
American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME), Three Park Avenue, New York, NY 10016-5990 (United States); Technological Institute of the Royal Flemish Society of Engineers (TI-K VIV), Het Ingenieurshuis, Desguinlei 214, 2018 Antwerp (Belgium); Belgian Nuclear Society (BNS) - ASBL-VZW, c/o SCK-CEN, Avenue Hermann Debrouxlaan, 40 - B-1160 Brussels (Belgium)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTANT EFFECTS ON LIVING ORGANISMS AND BIOLOGICAL MATERIALS; CESIUM 137; INDIUM 135; MILK; RADIATION DOSES; RADIATION MONITORING; RADIOACTIVE MATERIALS; REACTOR ACCIDENTS; RUSSIAN FEDERATION; SEMIPALATINSK TEST SITE; SULFUR 26; UKRAINE