A new energy security paradigm for the twenty-first century
- University of Cambridge, Cambridge (United Kingdom). Judge Business School
This paper considers apossible energy future in which the impacts of climate change have been realized far earlier than most experts have previously expected. This has promoted a transition to cleaner energy technologies long before the depletion of fossil fuel resources. In this scenario, the peak in demand for fossil fuels occurs before the peak in supply and some nations are strongly promoting the development and deployment of clean energy technologies. In this scenario the countries of the world would fall into one of the three categories: (1) those willing and readily able to adjust in response to rapid and serious climate change, (2) those willing to adjust, but facing significant economic hardship without external assistance and protection, (3) and those unwilling and, perhaps unable to play a part in combating climate change. This paper considers how countries in the first two categories could respond by adjusting their foreign, trade and even military policies. Within a generation, the great powers might find themselves shifting from keeping trade routes open to constraining the same trade. Severe climate change impacts could even approach the timescale of technological innovation needed to respond to this crisis. This paper proposes that our world may need new military and foreign policy options as well as new energy technology options in the years to come.
- OSTI ID:
- 21116482
- Journal Information:
- Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 75, Issue 8; ISSN 0040-1625
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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