The influence of volcanic stratospheric aerosols on interannual global climate variations. Ph.D. Thesis
A qualitative physical mechanism has been proposed to explain the forcing of the EI Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by low-latitude volcanic stratospheric aerosols. This mechanism is based on the normal global annual cycle resulting from the normal annual cycle in the distribution of incoming solar radiation. The presence of a volcanic stratospheric aerosol, which backscatters incoming solar radiation, is hypothesized to trigger the ENSO through an amplification of the normal annual decrease in wind strength and corresponding increase in sea surface temperatures (SST) in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The observational evidence for an association between the record of volcanic eruptions and SST and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI, Tahiti SLP minus Darwin SLP) over the last 120 years is examined using superposed epoch analysis. Composites using as key dates low-latitude volcanic eruptions suggest that these eruptions are followed by statistically significantly warm sea surface temperatures at least at the 1 percent level, if not higher, with the greatest warming generally occurring in the first three seasons after the eruption. Satellite data on the distribution of recent volcanic aerosols suggests that an aerosol must only be present over the tropics (about 20 deg S to 20 deg N) to trigger an ENSO event. For the physical mechanism by which an ENSO event may be triggered by a volcanic stratospheric aerosol, these results and the results of recent computer modeling studies imply the need for a shift away from past emphasis on surface cooling and SLP anomalies and toward consideration of stratospheric warming and changes in energy storage and transport.
- Research Organization:
- Univ. of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, IL (United States)
- OSTI ID:
- 188464
- Resource Relation:
- Other Information: TH: Ph.D. Thesis; PBD: 1992
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
Similar Records
Seasonal and interannual temperature variations in the tropical stratosphere
The global climate for September-November 1992: Weak warm ENSO episode conditions linger in the tropical Pacific