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Title: A probabilistic model of ecosystem response to climate change

Anthropogenic activities are leading to rapid changes in land cover and emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. These changes can bring about climate change typified by average global temperatures rising by 1--5 C over the next century. Climate change of this magnitude is likely to alter the distribution of terrestrial ecosystems on a large scale. Options available for dealing with such change are abatement of emissions, adaptation, and geoengineering. The integrated assessment of climate change demands that frameworks be developed where all the elements of the climate problem are present (from economic activity to climate change and its impacts on market and non-market goods and services). Integrated climate assessment requires multiple impact metrics and multi-attribute utility functions to simulate the response of different key actors/decision-makers to the actual physical impacts (rather than a dollar value) of the climate-damage vs. policy-cost debate. This necessitates direct modeling of ecosystem impacts of climate change. The authors have developed a probabilistic model of ecosystem response to global change. This model differs from previous efforts in that it is statistically estimated using actual ecosystem and climate data yielding a joint multivariate probability of prevalence for each ecosystem, given climatic conditions. The authors expect thismore » approach to permit simulation of inertia and competition which have, so far, been absent in transfer models of continental-scale ecosystem response to global change. Thus, although the probability of one ecotype will dominate others at a given point, others would have the possibility of establishing an early foothold.« less
Authors:
;  [1]
  1. Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States). Dept. of Engineering and Public Policy
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
182819
Report Number(s):
CONF-940426--
ISBN 0-923204-11-3; TRN: IM9608%%184
Resource Type:
Book
Resource Relation:
Conference: International conference on global climate change: science, policy and mitigation strategies, Phoenix, AZ (United States), 5-8 Apr 1994; Other Information: PBD: 1994; Related Information: Is Part Of Global climate change: Science, policy, and mitigation strategies. Proceedings of the Air and Waste Management Association international specialty conference; Mathai, C.V. [ed.] [Arizona Public Service Co., Phoenix, AZ (United States)]; Stensland, G. [ed.] [Illinois State Water Survey, Champaign, IL (United States)]; PB: 1117 p.
Publisher:
Air and Waste Management Association, Pittsburgh, PA (United States)
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES; 29 ENERGY PLANNING AND POLICY; GREENHOUSE GASES; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS; ECOSYSTEMS; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; PROBABILITY; GREENHOUSE EFFECT; POLLUTION ABATEMENT; GLOBAL ASPECTS; EXPERIMENTAL DATA