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Title: Prediction of MeV electron fluxes throughout the outer radiation belt using multivariate autoregressive models

The Van Allen radiation belts surrounding the Earth are filled with MeV-energy electrons. This region poses ionizing radiation risks for spacecraft that operate within it, including those in geostationary orbit (GEO) and medium Earth orbit. In order to provide alerts of electron flux enhancements, 16 prediction models of the electron log-flux variation throughout the equatorial outer radiation belt as a function of the McIlwain L parameter were developed using the multivariate autoregressive model and Kalman filter. Measurements of omnidirectional 2.3 MeV electron flux from the Van Allen Probes mission as well as >2 MeV electrons from the GOES 15 spacecraft were used as the predictors. Furthermore, we selected model explanatory parameters from solar wind parameters, the electron log-flux at GEO, and geomagnetic indices. For the innermost region of the outer radiation belt, the electron flux is best predicted by using the Dst index as the sole input parameter. For the central to outermost regions, at L≥4.8 and L ≥5.6, the electron flux is predicted most accurately by including also the solar wind velocity and then the dynamic pressure, respectively. The Dst index is the best overall single parameter for predicting at 3 ≤ L ≤ 6, while for the GEOmore » flux prediction, the KP index is better than Dst. Finally, a test calculation demonstrates that the model successfully predicts the timing and location of the flux maximum as much as 2 days in advance and that the electron flux decreases faster with time at higher L values, both model features consistent with the actually observed behavior.« less
Authors:
 [1] ;  [1] ;  [2] ;  [3]
  1. National Inst. of Information and Communications Technology, Koganei (Japan)
  2. Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
  3. Univ. of New Hampshire, Durham, NH (United States). Inst. for the Study of Earth, Oceans, and Space
Publication Date:
OSTI Identifier:
1335608
Report Number(s):
LA-UR-15-28230
Journal ID: ISSN 1542-7390
Grant/Contract Number:
AC52-06NA25396
Type:
Accepted Manuscript
Journal Name:
Space Weather
Additional Journal Information:
Journal Volume: 13; Journal Issue: 12; Journal ID: ISSN 1542-7390
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union
Research Org:
Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org:
USDOE
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Subject:
58 GEOSCIENCES; Heliospheric and Magnetospheric Physics