Expert elicitation survey on future wind energy costs

Wiser, Ryan; Jenni, Karen; Seel, Joachim; Baker, Erin; Hand, Maureen; Lantz, Eric; Smith, Aaron

doi:10.1038/nenergy.2016.135

Title: Expert elicitation survey on future wind energy costs

Journal Article · Mon Sep 12 00:00:00 EDT 2016 · Nature Energy

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/nenergy.2016.135· OSTI ID:1325512

Wiser, Ryan ^[1]; Jenni, Karen ^[2]; Seel, Joachim ^[1]; Baker, Erin ^[3]; Hand, Maureen ^[4]; Lantz, Eric ^[4]; Smith, Aaron ^[4]

Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Insight Decisions, LLC, Denver, CO (United States)
Univ. of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA (United States)
National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

Wind energy supply has grown rapidly over the last decade. However, the long-term contribution of wind to future energy supply, and the degree to which policy support is necessary to motivate higher levels of deployment, depends -- in part -- on the future costs of both onshore and offshore wind. Here, we summarize the results of an expert elicitation survey of 163 of the world's foremost wind experts, aimed at better understanding future costs and technology advancement possibilities. Results suggest significant opportunities for cost reductions, but also underlying uncertainties. Under the median scenario, experts anticipate 24-30% reductions by 2030 and 35-41% reductions by 2050 across the three wind applications studied. Costs could be even lower: experts predict a 10% chance that reductions will be more than 40% by 2030 and more than 50% by 2050. Insights gained through expert elicitation complement other tools for evaluating cost-reduction potential, and help inform policy and planning, R&D and industry strategy.

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Renewable Power Office. Wind Energy Technologies Office; International Energy Agency Wind (IEA Wind), Indianapolis, IN (United States); National Science Foundation (NSF)

DOE Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231; AC36-09GO28308; 1068864

OSTI ID:: 1325512

Report Number(s):: NREL/JA-6A20-66669

Journal Information:: Nature Energy, Vol. 1, Issue 10; ISSN 2058-7546

Publisher:: Nature Publishing Group

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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